Spelle-Venhaus vs Lüneburger SK Hansa Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.90 expected goals for Spelle-Venhaus and 1.45 for Lüneburger SK Hansa, a combined total of 4.35. That distribution gives Spelle-Venhaus the largest share of the 1X2 market at 67%, with the draw at 16%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 81% for over 2.5 goals and 72% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 67% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Spelle-Venhaus win

67.2% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

2.90 – 1.45

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Spelle-Venhaus home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Spelle-Venhaus to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 67%, against 67% / 16% / 17% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.90 goals for Spelle-Venhaus and 1.45 for Lüneburger SK Hansa, a combined 4.35 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 81% and both teams to score at 72%, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%.

Match result (1X2)

Spelle-Venhaus win67%

Draw16%

Lüneburger SK Hansa win17%

Double chance 1X

83%

Double chance 12

84%

Double chance X2

33%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals93%

Over 2.5 goals81%

Over 3.5 goals63%

Both teams to score72%

Correct score

2–17.9%
3–17.6%
2–25.7%
3–25.5%
4–15.5%

Recent form

Spelle-Venhaus

2026-10-11T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Germania Egestorf · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-27T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Meppen II · 0-4 (L)
2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Eintracht Braunschw. II · 3-1 (W)
2026-09-13T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Heeslinger SC · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-06T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Lüneburger SK Hansa · 2-2 (D)

Lüneburger SK Hansa

2026-10-11T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Borussia Hildesheim · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-27T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Verden 04 · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Vorsfelde · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-16T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Bersenbrück · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-12T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Nordhorn · 1-2 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Oberliga - Niedersachsen table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Heeslinger SC	10	6	3	1	17	21
2	Eintracht Braunschw. II	10	6	2	2	15	20
3	Wilhelmshaven	9	6	2	1	13	20
4	Schwarz-Weiß Rehden	9	6	2	1	10	20
5	Borussia Hildesheim	9	6	1	2	7	19
6	Spelle-Venhaus	9	5	3	1	7	18
7	BW Lohne	9	4	2	3	4	14
8	Bersenbrück	9	4	1	4	2	13
9	Meppen II	10	4	1	5	-3	13
10	Nordhorn	10	3	2	5	-13	11
11	Verden 04	10	2	4	4	-2	10
12	Germania Egestorf	9	2	2	5	-9	8
13	Hemmingen	9	2	1	6	-15	7
14	Lüneburger SK Hansa	9	0	6	3	-3	6
15	Vorsfelde	10	1	2	7	-17	5
16	Drochtersen/Assel II	9	1	0	8	-13	3

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Spelle-Venhaus win, at 67.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 72% and over 2.5 goals at 81%.

A 67% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.