· Analysis updated 18:38 UTC
Spelle-Venhaus vs VfL Osnabrück Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.35 expected goals for Spelle-Venhaus and 2.53 for VfL Osnabrück, a combined total of 3.88. That distribution gives VfL Osnabrück the largest share of the 1X2 market at 63%, with the draw at 18%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 74% for over 2.5 goals and 68% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 63% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
VfL Osnabrück win
62.9% probability
Expected goals
1.35 – 2.53
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Spelle-Venhaus home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
VfL Osnabrück away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates VfL Osnabrück to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 63%, against 19% / 18% / 63% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.35 goals for Spelle-Venhaus and 2.53 for VfL Osnabrück, a combined 3.88 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
37%
Double chance 12
82%
Double chance X2
81%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–28.9%
- 1–37.5%
- 1–17.1%
- 0–26.6%
- 2–26.0%
Recent form
Spelle-Venhaus
- 2026-10-23T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Nordhorn · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-18T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Hemmingen · 5-1 (W)
- 2026-10-11T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Germania Egestorf · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-27T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Meppen II · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Eintracht Braunschw. II · 3-1 (W)
VfL Osnabrück
- 2026-10-18T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Arminia Bielefeld · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-10T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Dynamo Dresden · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-03T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Djurgardens IF · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-02T11:00:00.000Z · A vs VfL Bochum · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-09-23T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Wiedenbrück · 3-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is VfL Osnabrück win, at 62.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 68% and over 2.5 goals at 74%.
A 63% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.