· Analysis updated 02:57 UTC
Spennymoor Town vs Chester Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.86 expected goals for Spennymoor Town and 1.33 for Chester, a combined total of 3.19. That distribution gives Spennymoor Town the largest share of the 1X2 market at 50%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 62% for over 2.5 goals and 62% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 50% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Spennymoor Town win
49.8% probability
Expected goals
1.86 – 1.33
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Spennymoor Town home form
5 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Chester away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 6 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
72%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
50%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.2%
- 2–19.5%
- 1–07.6%
- 2–07.1%
- 1–26.8%
Recent form
Spennymoor Town
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Chester · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Southport · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs AFC Emley · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Macclesfield · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-08T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Spalding United · 1-3 (L)
Chester
- 2026-10-24T14:00:00.000Z · A vs South Shields · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Bedford Town · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Spennymoor Town · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Worksop Town · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Lower Breck · 2-1 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-02-28T15:00:00.000Z · Spennymoor Town 1-2 Chester (National League - North)
- 2026-01-20T19:45:00.000Z · Spennymoor Town 1-2 Chester (National League - North)
- 2025-01-21T19:45:00.000Z · Spennymoor Town 0-1 Chester (National League - North)
- 2024-08-10T14:00:00.000Z · Spennymoor Town 3-0 Chester (National League - North)
- 2024-02-24T15:00:00.000Z · Spennymoor Town 1-1 Chester (National League - North)
- 2023-09-02T14:00:00.000Z · Spennymoor Town 1-1 Chester (National League - North)
- 2023-02-04T15:00:00.000Z · Spennymoor Town 2-1 Chester (National League - North)
- 2022-11-01T19:45:00.000Z · Spennymoor Town 0-3 Chester (National League - North)
- 2022-02-22T19:45:00.000Z · Spennymoor Town 2-0 Chester (National League - North)
- 2021-12-11T15:00:00.000Z · Spennymoor Town 4-2 Chester (National League - North)
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Spennymoor Town win, at 49.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 62% and over 2.5 goals at 62%.
A 50% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.