Spennymoor Town vs Oxford City Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.06 expected goals for Spennymoor Town and 1.02 for Oxford City, a combined total of 2.08. That distribution gives Spennymoor Town the largest share of the 1X2 market at 36%, with the draw at 30%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 35% for over 2.5 goals and 42% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 36% favourite still loses or draws roughly 64% of the time.

Model pick

Spennymoor Town or Draw

65.9% probability

Moderate confidence

Expected goals

1.06 – 1.02

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

Spennymoor Town win36%

Draw30%

Oxford City win34%

Double chance 1X

66%

Double chance 12

70%

Double chance X2

64%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals62%

Over 2.5 goals35%

Over 3.5 goals16%

Both teams to score42%

Correct score

1–113.5%
1–013.2%
0–112.8%
0–012.5%
2–17.1%

Why the model likes this

Most likely outcome
The model rates Spennymoor Town to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 36%, against 36% / 30% / 34% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.06 goals for Spennymoor Town and 1.02 for Oxford City, a combined 2.08 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 35% and both teams to score at 42%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 14%.
Model confidence
Spennymoor Town or Draw is the headline pick at 66% with medium confidence, built from team strength, home advantage and competition baselines while season data is still limited.

Recent form

Spennymoor Town

Oxford City

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

National League - North table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Chester	2	2	0	0	3	6
2	Worksop Town	2	2	0	0	2	6
3	Macclesfield	2	2	0	0	2	6
4	South Shields	2	2	0	0	2	6
5	Oxford City	2	2	0	0	2	6
6	Hebburn Town	2	1	1	0	2	4
7	Brackley Town	2	1	1	0	1	4
8	Buxton	2	1	1	0	1	4
9	Spennymoor Town	2	1	1	0	1	4
10	Harborough Town	2	1	1	0	1	4
11	Merthyr Town	2	1	0	1	1	3
12	Spalding United	2	1	0	1	1	3
13	Darlington 1883	2	1	0	1	0	3
14	Scarborough Athletic	2	1	0	1	0	3
15	Hereford	2	1	0	1	0	3
16	Morecambe	2	0	1	1	-1	1
17	Southport	2	0	1	1	-2	1
18	King's Lynn Town	2	0	1	1	-2	1
19	AFC Telford United	2	0	0	2	-2	0
20	Bedford Town	2	0	0	2	-2	0
21	Chorley	2	0	0	2	-2	0
22	Marine	2	0	0	2	-2	0
23	Hednesford Town	2	0	0	2	-3	0
24	Radcliffe	2	0	0	2	-3	0

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.