Spezia vs Livorno Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.95 expected goals for Spezia and 0.72 for Livorno, a combined total of 2.67. That distribution gives Spezia the largest share of the 1X2 market at 67%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 50% for over 2.5 goals and 44% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 67% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Spezia win

66.6% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.95 – 0.72

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Spezia home form
12 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Livorno away threat
Scored in 1 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Spezia to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 67%, against 67% / 21% / 13% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.95 goals for Spezia and 0.72 for Livorno, a combined 2.67 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Spezia win67%

Draw21%

Livorno win13%

Double chance 1X

87%

Double chance 12

80%

Double chance X2

34%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals75%

Over 2.5 goals50%

Over 3.5 goals28%

Both teams to score44%

Correct score

1–013.5%
2–013.2%
1–19.7%
2–19.5%
3–08.6%

Recent form

Spezia

2026-09-16T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Perugia · 3-0 (W)
2026-09-12T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Livorno · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-06T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Sambenedettese · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-02T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Vado · 3-0 (W)
2026-08-29T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Campobasso FC · 1-0 (W)

Livorno

2026-10-03T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Pescara · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-26T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Pianese · 3-2 (W)
2026-09-21T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Guidonia Montecelio 1937 · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-16T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Vado · 3-2 (W)
2026-09-12T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Spezia · 0-2 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Serie C - Girone B table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Spezia	11	9	2	0	14	29
2	Ravenna	11	7	2	2	14	23
3	Grosseto	11	6	4	1	10	22
4	Pescara	11	5	3	3	2	18
5	Torres	11	5	3	3	1	18
6	Reggiana	11	5	2	4	3	17
7	Guidonia Montecelio 1937	11	4	4	3	2	16
8	Livorno	11	4	4	3	0	16
9	Perugia	11	5	1	5	-2	16
10	Vado	11	4	3	4	1	15
11	Campobasso FC	11	4	3	4	-4	15
12	Latina	11	3	5	3	0	14
13	Pineto	11	3	5	3	-2	14
14	Forli	11	2	6	3	0	12
15	Atalanta II	10	4	0	6	-4	12
16	Sambenedettese	11	2	4	5	-2	10
17	Ostia Mare	11	2	3	6	-4	9
18	Pianese	11	1	6	4	-4	9
19	Gubbio	11	2	1	8	-11	7
20	Vis Pesaro	10	1	1	8	-14	4

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Spezia win, at 66.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 44% and over 2.5 goals at 50%.

A 67% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.