Stadio Alberto Picco · Analysis updated 14:58 UTC
Spezia vs Vado Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.81 expected goals for Spezia and 0.72 for Vado, a combined total of 2.53. That distribution gives Spezia the largest share of the 1X2 market at 63%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 46% for over 2.5 goals and 43% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 63% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Spezia win
63.4% probability
Expected goals
1.81 – 0.72
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Spezia home form
12 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Vado away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Spezia to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 63%, against 63% / 22% / 14% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.81 goals for Spezia and 0.72 for Vado, a combined 2.53 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
86%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
37%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–014.4%
- 2–013.0%
- 1–110.4%
- 2–19.4%
- 0–08.0%
Recent form
Spezia
- 2026-09-16T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Perugia · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Livorno · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-06T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Sambenedettese · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-02T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Vado · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-08-29T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Campobasso FC · 1-0 (W)
Vado
- 2026-10-03T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Forli · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-26T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Torres · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-20T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Pescara · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-16T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Livorno · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-12T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Campobasso FC · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Spezia win, at 63.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 43% and over 2.5 goals at 46%.
A 63% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.