· Analysis updated 10:56 UTC
Spišská Nová Ves vs Kežmarok Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.67 expected goals for Spišská Nová Ves and 0.69 for Kežmarok, a combined total of 3.37. That distribution gives Spišská Nová Ves the largest share of the 1X2 market at 79%, with the draw at 14%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 65% for over 2.5 goals and 46% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 79% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Spišská Nová Ves win
79.2% probability
Expected goals
2.67 – 0.69
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Spišská Nová Ves home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Spišská Nová Ves to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 79%, against 79% / 14% / 7% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.67 goals for Spišská Nová Ves and 0.69 for Kežmarok, a combined 3.37 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 65% and both teams to score at 46%, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 12%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
93%
Double chance 12
86%
Double chance X2
21%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–012.3%
- 3–011.0%
- 1–09.2%
- 2–18.5%
- 3–17.6%
Recent form
Spišská Nová Ves
- 2026-09-26T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Poprad · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Lipany · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs MSK Tesla Stropkov · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-08T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Podbrezová · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Partizán Bardejov · 0-1 (L)
Kežmarok
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
3. liga - East table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lokomotíva Košice | 12 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 13 | 24 |
| 2 | Stará Ľubovňa | 12 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 12 | 24 |
| 3 | Spartak Medzev | 12 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 23 |
| 4 | Raslavice | 12 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 23 |
| 5 | Partizán Bardejov | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 20 |
| 6 | Spišská Nová Ves | 12 | 6 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 19 |
| 7 | Lipany | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 8 | 18 |
| 8 | MSK Tesla Stropkov | 12 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 7 | 17 |
| 9 | Poprad | 12 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 17 |
| 10 | Slávia TU Košice | 12 | 5 | 1 | 6 | 2 | 16 |
| 11 | Snina | 12 | 3 | 5 | 4 | -7 | 14 |
| 12 | Vranov nad Topľou | 12 | 4 | 1 | 7 | -15 | 13 |
| 13 | Slovan Sabinov | 12 | 1 | 4 | 7 | -14 | 7 |
| 14 | Kežmarok | 12 | 0 | 1 | 11 | -26 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Spišská Nová Ves win, at 79.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 46% and over 2.5 goals at 65%.
A 79% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.