Spišská Nová Ves vs Vranov nad Topľou Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.28 expected goals for Spišská Nová Ves and 0.99 for Vranov nad Topľou, a combined total of 3.28. That distribution gives Spišská Nová Ves the largest share of the 1X2 market at 66%, with the draw at 19%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 64% for over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 66% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Spišská Nová Ves win

66.4% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

2.28 – 0.99

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Spišská Nová Ves home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Vranov nad Topľou away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Spišská Nová Ves to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 66%, against 66% / 19% / 15% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.28 goals for Spišská Nová Ves and 0.99 for Vranov nad Topľou, a combined 3.28 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Spišská Nová Ves win66%

Draw19%

Vranov nad Topľou win15%

Double chance 1X

85%

Double chance 12

81%

Double chance X2

34%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals84%

Over 2.5 goals64%

Over 3.5 goals41%

Both teams to score57%

Correct score

2–09.9%
2–19.8%
1–08.6%
1–18.6%
3–07.5%

Recent form

Spišská Nová Ves

2026-09-26T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Poprad · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-19T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Lipany · 0-3 (L)
2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs MSK Tesla Stropkov · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-08T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Podbrezová · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Partizán Bardejov · 0-1 (L)

Vranov nad Topľou

2026-10-17T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Slovan Sabinov · 2-0 (W)
2026-10-14T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Dukla Banská Bystrica · 0-2 (L)
2026-10-10T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Partizán Bardejov · 2-1 (W)
2026-10-03T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Lokomotíva Košice · 0-3 (L)
2026-09-26T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Kežmarok · 2-0 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

3. liga - East table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Lokomotíva Košice	11	7	3	1	14	24
2	Spartak Medzev	12	7	2	3	8	23
3	Raslavice	12	7	2	3	4	23
4	Stará Ľubovňa	11	6	3	2	11	21
5	Partizán Bardejov	12	6	2	4	2	20
6	Spišská Nová Ves	12	6	1	5	3	19
7	Lipany	12	5	3	4	8	18
8	Poprad	12	5	2	5	3	17
9	MSK Tesla Stropkov	11	4	2	5	2	14
10	Snina	11	3	5	3	-2	14
11	Slávia TU Košice	11	4	1	6	0	13
12	Vranov nad Topľou	11	4	1	6	-13	13
13	Slovan Sabinov	12	1	4	7	-14	7
14	Kežmarok	12	0	1	11	-26	1

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Spišská Nová Ves win, at 66.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 57% and over 2.5 goals at 64%.

A 66% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.