Spjelkavik Stadion · Analysis updated 13:42 UTC
Spjelkavik vs hodd Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.95 expected goals for Spjelkavik and 1.68 for hodd, a combined total of 3.63. That distribution gives Spjelkavik the largest share of the 1X2 market at 45%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 70% for over 2.5 goals and 70% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 45% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
66.3% probability
Expected goals
1.95 – 1.68
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Spjelkavik home form
3 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
hodd away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Spjelkavik to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 45%, against 45% / 22% / 34% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.95 goals for Spjelkavik and 1.68 for hodd, a combined 3.63 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
66%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
55%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–18.7%
- 2–18.5%
- 1–27.3%
- 2–27.1%
- 3–15.5%
Recent form
Spjelkavik
- 2026-10-09T16:15:00.000Z · A vs Herd · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-04T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Ranheim II · 2-5 (L)
- 2026-09-26T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Melhus · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-21T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Rosenborg II · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-14T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Aalesund II · 2-3 (L)
hodd
- 2026-10-11T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Egersund · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · H vs ODD Ballklubb · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-20T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Kongsvinger · 1-5 (L)
- 2026-09-16T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Træff · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Lyn · 0-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 66.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 70% and over 2.5 goals at 70%.
A 66% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.