Spjelkavik vs Ranheim II Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.91 expected goals for Spjelkavik and 2.31 for Ranheim II, a combined total of 5.22. That distribution gives Spjelkavik the largest share of the 1X2 market at 51%, with the draw at 18%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 89% for over 2.5 goals and 85% for both teams to score, with 2–2 the single most likely scoreline at 6%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 51% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Spjelkavik win

51.3% probability

Low confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

2.91 – 2.31

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Spjelkavik home form
3 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Ranheim II away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Spjelkavik to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 51%, against 51% / 18% / 31% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.91 goals for Spjelkavik and 2.31 for Ranheim II, a combined 5.22 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Spjelkavik win51%

Draw18%

Ranheim II win31%

Double chance 1X

69%

Double chance 12

83%

Double chance X2

49%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals96%

Over 2.5 goals89%

Over 3.5 goals76%

Both teams to score85%

Correct score

2–26.1%
3–25.9%
2–15.3%
3–15.1%
2–34.7%

Recent form

Spjelkavik

2026-10-09T16:15:00.000Z · A vs Herd · 1-2 (L)
2026-10-04T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Ranheim II · 2-5 (L)
2026-09-26T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Melhus · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-21T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Rosenborg II · 0-4 (L)
2026-09-14T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Aalesund II · 2-3 (L)

Ranheim II

2026-10-12T15:45:00.000Z · H vs Molde II · 2-3 (L)
2026-10-04T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Spjelkavik · 5-2 (W)
2026-09-26T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Volda · 1-3 (L)
2026-09-21T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Nardo · 1-4 (L)
2026-09-13T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Byåsen · 1-4 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

3. Division - Girone 2 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Strindheim	25	17	4	4	43	55
2	Volda	25	17	4	4	41	55
3	Melhus	25	12	6	7	26	42
4	Byåsen	24	11	5	8	7	38
5	Molde II	24	10	5	9	-11	35
6	Rosenborg II	24	10	4	10	9	34
7	Nardo	25	10	3	12	13	33
8	Herd	25	9	5	11	-11	32
9	Spjelkavik	25	8	5	12	-11	29
10	NTNUI	25	7	8	10	-16	29
11	Ranheim II	24	7	5	12	-17	26
12	Kvik Trondheim	24	7	5	12	-21	26
13	Aalesund II	24	7	4	13	-23	25
14	Orkla	25	6	5	14	-29	23

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Spjelkavik win, at 51.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–2.

It puts both teams scoring at 85% and over 2.5 goals at 89%.

A 51% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.