Sport Academy Kairat vs Ekibastuz Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 3.00 expected goals for Sport Academy Kairat and 0.88 for Ekibastuz, a combined total of 3.88. That distribution gives Sport Academy Kairat the largest share of the 1X2 market at 80%, with the draw at 12%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 74% for over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 80% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Sport Academy Kairat win

79.8% probability

High confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

3.00 – 0.88

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Sport Academy Kairat home form
8 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Ekibastuz away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 7 of the last 10 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

Sport Academy Kairat win80%

Draw12%

Ekibastuz win8%

Double chance 1X

92%

Double chance 12

88%

Double chance X2

20%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals90%

Over 2.5 goals74%

Over 3.5 goals54%

Both teams to score55%

Correct score

2–09.3%
3–09.3%
2–18.2%
3–18.2%
4–07.0%

Recent form

Sport Academy Kairat

2026-10-22T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Shakhter Karagandy · 3-2 (W)
2026-10-16T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Ekibastuz · 2-0 (W)
2026-10-09T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Taraz · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-18T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Khan Tengri · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-10T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Astana II · 2-2 (D)

Ekibastuz

2026-10-09T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Khan Tengri · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-18T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Astana II · 1-7 (L)
2026-09-11T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Tobol 2 · 1-5 (L)
2026-09-03T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Arys · 1-3 (L)
2026-08-27T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Turan Turkistan · 2-4 (L)

Head-to-head

2026-07-10T12:00:00.000Z · Sport Academy Kairat 4-2 Ekibastuz (1. Division)
2025-07-31T12:00:00.000Z · Sport Academy Kairat 3-2 Ekibastuz (1. Division)
2025-05-01T11:30:00.000Z · Sport Academy Kairat 7-0 Ekibastuz (1. Division)
2024-08-09T12:00:00.000Z · Sport Academy Kairat 4-1 Ekibastuz (1. Division)
2024-06-27T12:00:00.000Z · Sport Academy Kairat 3-0 Ekibastuz (1. Division)
2023-10-31T09:00:00.000Z · Sport Academy Kairat 1-3 Ekibastuz (1. Division)
2023-04-06T11:00:00.000Z · Sport Academy Kairat 5-2 Ekibastuz (1. Division)
2022-08-06T11:00:00.000Z · Sport Academy Kairat 3-0 Ekibastuz (1. Division)
2022-04-30T11:00:00.000Z · Sport Academy Kairat 2-2 Ekibastuz (1. Division)
2021-10-23T09:00:00.000Z · Sport Academy Kairat 6-3 Ekibastuz (1. Division)

1. Division table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Shakhter Karagandy	26	21	2	3	56	65
2	Sport Academy Kairat	26	19	6	1	57	63
3	Turan Turkistan	26	18	3	5	33	57
4	Akademiya Ontustik	26	13	4	9	4	43
5	Astana II	26	12	3	11	2	39
6	Taraz	26	10	7	9	4	37
7	Arys	26	10	3	13	-11	33
8	Jaiyq	26	9	5	12	-9	32
9	Khan Tengri	26	9	5	12	-13	32
10	Kaspij Aktau 2	26	8	4	14	-12	28
11	Ekibastuz	26	7	6	13	-25	27
12	Aktobe Jas	26	6	6	14	-35	24
13	Tobol 2	26	6	5	15	-13	23
14	Yelimay Semey 2	26	3	3	20	-38	12

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Sport Academy Kairat win, at 79.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 55% and over 2.5 goals at 74%.

A 80% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.