Estadio Campeones del 36 · Analysis updated 14:42 UTC
Sport Boys vs Alianza Atletico Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.53 expected goals for Sport Boys and 1.32 for Alianza Atletico, a combined total of 2.85. That distribution gives Sport Boys the largest share of the 1X2 market at 42%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 54% for over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 42% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
67.0% probability
Expected goals
1.53 – 1.32
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Sport Boys home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Alianza Atletico away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Sport Boys to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 42%, against 42% / 25% / 33% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.53 goals for Sport Boys and 1.32 for Alianza Atletico, a combined 2.85 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
67%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
58%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.7%
- 2–18.9%
- 1–08.8%
- 1–27.7%
- 0–17.6%
Recent form
Sport Boys
- 2026-09-27T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Alianza Atletico · 2-5 (L)
- 2026-09-20T01:15:00.000Z · A vs FBC Melgar · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-13T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Deportivo Garcilaso · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-05T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Sport Huancayo · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-30T20:30:00.000Z · H vs Sporting Cristal · 1-0 (W)
Alianza Atletico
- 2026-09-27T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Sport Boys · 5-2 (W)
- 2026-09-18T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Comerciantes Unidos · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-13T20:15:00.000Z · A vs Atletico Grau · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-04T20:15:00.000Z · H vs UTC Cajamarca · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-08-30T16:00:00.000Z · A vs UCV Moquegua · 4-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Copa De La Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sporting Cristal | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 12 | 17 |
| 2 | Alianza Atletico | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 16 |
| 3 | Sport Boys | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 11 |
| 4 | Sport Huancayo | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 10 |
| 5 | ADT | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 10 |
| 6 | Cienciano | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 9 |
| 7 | UTC Cajamarca | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 8 |
| 8 | Carlos A. Mannucci | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 7 |
| 9 | Club Deportivo Los Chankas | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 6 |
| 10 | Atletico Grau | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 6 |
| 11 | Deportivo Garcilaso | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 5 |
| 12 | Comerciantes | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 |
| 13 | UCV Moquegua | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 5 |
| 14 | Bentín Tacna Heroica | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 15 | Alianza Universidad | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 16 | Deportiva Agropecuaria | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 4 |
| 17 | Molinos El Pirata | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| 18 | Union Comercio | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 3 |
| 19 | Academia Cantolao | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 3 |
| 20 | Santos | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 3 |
| 21 | Deportivo Binacional | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -4 | 3 |
| 22 | Deportivo Llacuabamba | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| 23 | Juan Pablo II College | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| 24 | U. San Martin | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 |
| 25 | FBC Melgar | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 |
| 26 | Cusco | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 1 |
| 27 | FC Cajamarca | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 1 |
| 28 | Universitario | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 1 |
| 29 | Comerciantes Unidos | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 1 |
| 30 | Alianza Lima | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 1 |
| 31 | Cesar Vallejo | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 1 |
| 32 | Estudiantil CNI | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 1 |
| 33 | Minas | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 1 |
| 34 | Ayacucho FC | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 67.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 58% and over 2.5 goals at 54%.
A 67% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.