Estadio Miguel Grau · Referee R. B. Perez · Analysis updated 15:40 UTC
Sport Boys vs Alianza Lima Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.28 expected goals for Sport Boys and 0.86 for Alianza Lima, a combined total of 2.14. That distribution gives Sport Boys the largest share of the 1X2 market at 46%, with the draw at 29%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 36% for over 2.5 goals and 42% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 15%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 46% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Sport Boys win
46.1% probability
Expected goals
1.28 – 0.86
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Sport Boys home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Alianza Lima away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Sport Boys to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 46%, against 46% / 29% / 25% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.28 goals for Sport Boys and 0.86 for Alianza Lima, a combined 2.14 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
75%
Double chance 12
71%
Double chance X2
54%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–015.0%
- 1–113.0%
- 0–011.8%
- 0–110.2%
- 2–09.6%
Recent form
Sport Boys
- 2026-09-27T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Alianza Atletico · 2-5 (L)
- 2026-09-20T01:15:00.000Z · A vs FBC Melgar · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-13T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Deportivo Garcilaso · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-05T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Sport Huancayo · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-30T20:30:00.000Z · H vs Sporting Cristal · 1-0 (W)
Alianza Lima
- 2026-10-01T01:00:00.000Z · H vs Palestino · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-19T01:00:00.000Z · H vs ADT · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T01:00:00.000Z · H vs Universitario · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-06T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Juan Pablo II College · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-30T00:30:00.000Z · H vs Deportivo Garcilaso · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Primera División table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Sport Boys win, at 46.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 42% and over 2.5 goals at 36%.
A 46% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.