Estadio Miguel Grau · Referee Joel Alarcon, Peru · Analysis updated 15:37 UTC
Sport Boys vs Cienciano Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.23 expected goals for Sport Boys and 0.73 for Cienciano, a combined total of 1.95. That distribution gives Sport Boys the largest share of the 1X2 market at 48%, with the draw at 30%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 31% for over 2.5 goals and 36% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 17%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 48% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Sport Boys win
48.1% probability
Expected goals
1.23 – 0.73
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Sport Boys home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Cienciano away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 8 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
78%
Double chance 12
70%
Double chance X2
52%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–017.4%
- 0–014.2%
- 1–112.6%
- 2–010.7%
- 0–110.3%
Recent form
Sport Boys
- 2026-09-27T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Alianza Atletico · 2-5 (L)
- 2026-09-20T01:15:00.000Z · A vs FBC Melgar · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-13T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Deportivo Garcilaso · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-05T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Sport Huancayo · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-30T20:30:00.000Z · H vs Sporting Cristal · 1-0 (W)
Cienciano
- 2026-10-08T18:00:00.000Z · A vs UCV Moquegua · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-30T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Club Deportivo Los Chankas · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-23T20:00:00.000Z · A vs ADT · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-18T00:30:00.000Z · A vs Atletico Torque · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-11T00:30:00.000Z · H vs Atletico Torque · 2-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-23T18:00:00.000Z · Sport Boys 5-1 Cienciano (Primera División)
- 2026-03-09T22:30:00.000Z · Sport Boys 1-3 Cienciano (Primera División)
- 2025-09-18T00:30:00.000Z · Sport Boys 2-2 Cienciano (Primera División)
- 2025-04-19T18:00:00.000Z · Sport Boys 2-2 Cienciano (Primera División)
- 2024-07-30T20:00:00.000Z · Sport Boys 2-0 Cienciano (Primera División)
- 2024-02-18T22:00:00.000Z · Sport Boys 2-3 Cienciano (Primera División)
- 2023-10-28T20:15:00.000Z · Sport Boys 2-1 Cienciano (Primera División)
- 2023-06-10T00:00:00.000Z · Sport Boys 1-0 Cienciano (Primera División)
- 2022-08-14T18:15:00.000Z · Sport Boys 2-1 Cienciano (Primera División)
- 2022-03-19T20:30:00.000Z · Sport Boys 1-4 Cienciano (Primera División)
Primera División table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Sport Boys win, at 48.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 36% and over 2.5 goals at 31%.
A 48% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.