Estadio Miguel Grau · Referee S. Lozano · Analysis updated 14:34 UTC
Sport Boys vs Deportivo Garcilaso Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.22 expected goals for Sport Boys and 1.32 for Deportivo Garcilaso, a combined total of 2.54. That distribution gives Deportivo Garcilaso the largest share of the 1X2 market at 39%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 47% for over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 39% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
65.7% probability
Expected goals
1.22 – 1.32
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Sport Boys home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Deportivo Garcilaso away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Deportivo Garcilaso to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 39%, against 34% / 27% / 39% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.22 goals for Sport Boys and 1.32 for Deportivo Garcilaso, a combined 2.54 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
61%
Double chance 12
73%
Double chance X2
66%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.7%
- 0–110.4%
- 1–09.6%
- 1–28.4%
- 0–07.9%
Recent form
Sport Boys
- 2026-10-25T20:30:00.000Z · H vs FC Cajamarca · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-10-17T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Juan Pablo II College · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-11T20:30:00.000Z · H vs Alianza Atletico · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-10-06T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Alianza Atletico · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-27T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Alianza Atletico · 3-0 (W)
Deportivo Garcilaso
- 2026-10-17T23:00:00.000Z · A vs FBC Melgar · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-10-10T01:00:00.000Z · H vs Sport Huancayo · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-19T23:00:00.000Z · H vs Universitario · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Sport Boys · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-06T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Atletico Grau · 4-2 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Primera División table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 65.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 52% and over 2.5 goals at 47%.
A 66% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.