· Analysis updated 06:15 UTC
Sport Brasil ES vs Pinheiros Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.72 expected goals for Sport Brasil ES and 0.75 for Pinheiros, a combined total of 3.46. That distribution gives Sport Brasil ES the largest share of the 1X2 market at 79%, with the draw at 14%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 67% for over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 79% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Sport Brasil ES win
78.7% probability
Expected goals
2.72 – 0.75
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Sport Brasil ES home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Sport Brasil ES to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 79%, against 79% / 14% / 8% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.72 goals for Sport Brasil ES and 0.75 for Pinheiros, a combined 3.46 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 67% and both teams to score at 49%, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 12%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
92%
Double chance 12
86%
Double chance X2
21%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–011.6%
- 3–010.5%
- 2–18.6%
- 1–08.5%
- 3–17.8%
Recent form
Sport Brasil ES
- 2026-08-29T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Estrela do Norte · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-22T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Rive · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-08-19T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Tupy · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-16T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Pinheiros · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-08-02T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Estrela do Norte · 0-2 (L)
Pinheiros
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Capixaba B table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Estrela do Norte | 8 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 20 | 22 |
| 2 | Linhares | 8 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 20 | 18 |
| 3 | Rive | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 17 |
| 4 | Audax São Mateus | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 16 |
| 5 | GEL | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 12 |
| 6 | Doze | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -5 | 10 |
| 7 | Tupy | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -6 | 10 |
| 8 | Sport Brasil ES | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 9 |
| 9 | CTE Colatina | 8 | 0 | 1 | 7 | -28 | 1 |
| 10 | Pinheiros | 8 | 0 | 0 | 8 | -22 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Sport Brasil ES win, at 78.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 49% and over 2.5 goals at 67%.
A 79% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.