Estadio Huancayo · Referee D. Ureta · Analysis updated 10:54 UTC
Sport Huancayo vs Atletico Grau Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.25 expected goals for Sport Huancayo and 1.23 for Atletico Grau, a combined total of 2.48. That distribution gives Sport Huancayo the largest share of the 1X2 market at 37%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 45% for over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 37% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
64.2% probability
Expected goals
1.25 – 1.23
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Sport Huancayo home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Atletico Grau away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 3 of the last 9 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
64%
Double chance 12
73%
Double chance X2
63%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.9%
- 1–010.5%
- 0–110.3%
- 0–08.4%
- 2–18.1%
Recent form
Sport Huancayo
- 2026-09-20T18:00:00.000Z · H vs UTC Cajamarca · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-12T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Comerciantes Unidos · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-05T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Sport Boys · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-30T18:15:00.000Z · A vs ADT · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-08-26T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Sporting Cristal · 1-4 (L)
Atletico Grau
- 2026-09-19T20:30:00.000Z · A vs Sporting Cristal · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-13T20:15:00.000Z · H vs Alianza Atletico · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-06T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Deportivo Garcilaso · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-09-01T20:00:00.000Z · H vs FBC Melgar · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-26T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Sport Boys · 2-2 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-07-25T18:00:00.000Z · Sport Huancayo 2-0 Atletico Grau (Primera División)
- 2026-02-07T20:15:00.000Z · Sport Huancayo 0-0 Atletico Grau (Primera División)
- 2025-09-26T20:30:00.000Z · Sport Huancayo 1-3 Atletico Grau (Primera División)
- 2025-05-02T20:30:00.000Z · Sport Huancayo 3-0 Atletico Grau (Primera División)
- 2024-10-17T23:00:00.000Z · Sport Huancayo 1-3 Atletico Grau (Primera División)
- 2024-05-06T19:30:00.000Z · Sport Huancayo 0-0 Atletico Grau (Primera División)
- 2023-09-25T20:00:00.000Z · Sport Huancayo 0-0 Atletico Grau (Primera División)
- 2023-05-06T20:30:00.000Z · Sport Huancayo 1-0 Atletico Grau (Primera División)
- 2022-07-16T23:00:00.000Z · Sport Huancayo 1-1 Atletico Grau (Primera División)
Primera División table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 64.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 50% and over 2.5 goals at 45%.
A 64% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.