Estadio Huancayo · Analysis updated 08:06 UTC
Sport Huancayo vs FBC Melgar Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.25 expected goals for Sport Huancayo and 1.23 for FBC Melgar, a combined total of 2.48. That distribution gives Sport Huancayo the largest share of the 1X2 market at 37%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 45% for over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 37% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Home/Draw
64.2% probability
Expected goals
1.25 – 1.23
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Sport Huancayo home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
FBC Melgar away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Sport Huancayo to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 37%, against 37% / 27% / 36% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.25 goals for Sport Huancayo and 1.23 for FBC Melgar, a combined 2.48 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
64%
Double chance 12
73%
Double chance X2
63%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.9%
- 1–010.5%
- 0–110.3%
- 0–08.4%
- 2–18.1%
Recent form
Sport Huancayo
- 2026-09-20T18:00:00.000Z · H vs UTC Cajamarca · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-12T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Comerciantes Unidos · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-05T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Sport Boys · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-30T18:15:00.000Z · A vs ADT · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-08-26T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Sporting Cristal · 1-4 (L)
FBC Melgar
- 2026-10-11T00:00:00.000Z · A vs Universitario · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-20T01:15:00.000Z · H vs Sport Boys · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-12T00:00:00.000Z · A vs Cusco · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-06T23:30:00.000Z · H vs ADT · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-01T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Atletico Grau · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Primera División table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 64.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 50% and over 2.5 goals at 45%.
A 64% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.