Sport Huancayo vs Universitario Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.93 expected goals for Sport Huancayo and 1.57 for Universitario, a combined total of 3.50. That distribution gives Sport Huancayo the largest share of the 1X2 market at 47%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 68% for over 2.5 goals and 68% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 47% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Sport Huancayo win

46.5% probability

Low confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.93 – 1.57

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Sport Huancayo home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Universitario away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Sport Huancayo to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 47%, against 47% / 22% / 32% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.93 goals for Sport Huancayo and 1.57 for Universitario, a combined 3.50 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Sport Huancayo win47%

Draw22%

Universitario win32%

Double chance 1X

68%

Double chance 12

78%

Double chance X2

54%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals86%

Over 2.5 goals68%

Over 3.5 goals46%

Both teams to score68%

Correct score

1–19.2%
2–18.8%
1–27.2%
2–26.9%
1–05.8%

Recent form

Sport Huancayo

2026-09-20T18:00:00.000Z · H vs UTC Cajamarca · 3-2 (W)
2026-09-12T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Comerciantes Unidos · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-05T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Sport Boys · 2-1 (W)
2026-08-30T18:15:00.000Z · A vs ADT · 3-1 (W)
2026-08-26T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Sporting Cristal · 1-4 (L)

Universitario

2026-10-25T02:30:00.000Z · H vs Juan Pablo II College · 3-0 (W)
2026-10-18T20:30:00.000Z · A vs Alianza Atletico · 4-1 (W)
2026-10-11T00:00:00.000Z · H vs FBC Melgar · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-19T23:00:00.000Z · A vs Deportivo Garcilaso · 0-4 (L)
2026-09-13T01:00:00.000Z · A vs Alianza Lima · 2-1 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Primera División table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Alianza Lima	30	19	8	3	30	65
2	Universitario	30	16	8	6	18	56
3	FBC Melgar	30	15	8	7	19	53
4	Deportivo Garcilaso	29	14	6	9	12	48
5	Cusco	30	15	3	12	2	48
6	Cienciano	30	14	5	11	7	47
7	Club Deportivo Los Chankas	29	13	7	9	-8	46
8	Sporting Cristal	30	13	5	12	9	44
9	Sport Huancayo	30	13	5	12	-2	44
10	Alianza Atletico	30	12	7	11	1	43
11	Sport Boys	29	10	8	11	-1	38
12	Juan Pablo II College	30	10	8	12	-11	38
13	Comerciantes Unidos	30	8	10	12	-3	34
14	Atletico Grau	30	9	7	14	-7	34
15	FC Cajamarca	29	7	7	15	-12	28
16	UCV Moquegua	30	7	7	16	-19	28
17	ADT	30	6	9	15	-14	27
18	UTC Cajamarca	30	4	8	18	-21	15
1	Alianza Lima	17	12	4	1	22	40
2	Club Deportivo Los Chankas	17	10	4	3	4	34
3	Cienciano	17	10	3	4	12	33
4	Universitario	17	8	5	4	9	29
5	FBC Melgar	17	8	4	5	9	28
6	Cusco	17	8	3	6	-3	27
7	Deportivo Garcilaso	17	7	5	5	3	26
8	Alianza Atletico	17	5	6	6	2	21
9	Comerciantes Unidos	17	5	6	6	-2	21
10	ADT	17	5	5	7	1	20
11	Sport Boys	17	5	5	7	-4	20
12	Sporting Cristal	17	5	4	8	-2	19
13	UTC Cajamarca	17	4	6	7	-5	18
14	UCV Moquegua	17	5	3	9	-7	18
15	FC Cajamarca	17	4	5	8	-5	17
16	Atletico Grau	17	4	4	9	-6	16
17	Sport Huancayo	17	4	4	9	-10	16
18	Juan Pablo II College	17	4	4	9	-18	16
1	Sport Huancayo	13	9	1	3	8	28
2	Universitario	13	8	3	2	9	27
3	Sporting Cristal	13	8	1	4	11	25
4	FBC Melgar	13	7	4	2	10	25
5	Alianza Lima	13	7	4	2	8	25
6	Deportivo Garcilaso	12	7	1	4	9	22
7	Juan Pablo II College	13	6	4	3	7	22
8	Alianza Atletico	13	7	1	5	-1	22
9	Cusco	13	7	0	6	5	21
10	Sport Boys	12	5	3	4	3	18
11	Atletico Grau	13	5	3	5	-1	18
12	Cienciano	13	4	2	7	-5	14
13	Comerciantes Unidos	13	3	4	6	-1	13
14	Club Deportivo Los Chankas	12	3	3	6	-12	12
15	FC Cajamarca	12	3	2	7	-7	11
16	UCV Moquegua	13	2	4	7	-12	10
17	ADT	13	1	4	8	-15	7
18	UTC Cajamarca	13	0	2	11	-16	2

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Sport Huancayo win, at 46.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 68% and over 2.5 goals at 68%.

A 47% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.