· Analysis updated 21:56 UTC
Sport Recife U20 vs Guarany U20 Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.55 expected goals for Sport Recife U20 and 0.48 for Guarany U20, a combined total of 3.03. That distribution gives Sport Recife U20 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 82%, with the draw at 13%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 58% for over 2.5 goals and 35% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 16%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 82% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Sport Recife U20 win
82.2% probability
Expected goals
2.55 – 0.48
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Guarany U20 away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Sport Recife U20 to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 82%, against 82% / 13% / 5% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.55 goals for Sport Recife U20 and 0.48 for Guarany U20, a combined 3.03 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 58% and both teams to score at 35%, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 16%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
95%
Double chance 12
87%
Double chance X2
18%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–015.8%
- 3–013.4%
- 1–012.4%
- 4–08.6%
- 2–17.5%
Recent form
Sport Recife U20
Guarany U20
- 2026-09-30T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Jaguar U20 · 1-5 (L)
- 2026-09-23T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Nautico U20 · 0-7 (L)
- 2026-09-19T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Sport Recife U20 · 0-8 (L)
- 2026-09-12T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Academica Vitoria U20 · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-05T18:00:00.000Z · H vs America PE U20 · 0-8 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Pernambucano - U20 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Santa Cruz U20 | 8 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 29 | 20 |
| 1 | Sport Recife U20 | 7 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 20 | 18 |
| 2 | Retrô U20 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 16 | 17 |
| 2 | Nautico U20 | 7 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 18 |
| 3 | Ipojuca U20 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 15 |
| 3 | Academica Vitoria U20 | 7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 15 |
| 4 | CA Porto U20 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 12 | 14 |
| 4 | America PE U20 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 10 | 10 |
| 5 | Central SC U20 | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 12 |
| 5 | Petrolina U20 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 10 |
| 6 | 1º de Maio U20 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -11 | 8 |
| 6 | Serrano PE U20 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -3 | 6 |
| 7 | Ibis Sport Club U20 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -10 | 7 |
| 7 | Jaguar U20 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | -7 | 4 |
| 8 | Atletico PE U20 | 8 | 0 | 3 | 5 | -24 | 3 |
| 8 | Guarany U20 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 7 | -33 | 0 |
| 9 | Atletico Torres U20 | 8 | 0 | 2 | 6 | -22 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Sport Recife U20 win, at 82.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 35% and over 2.5 goals at 58%.
A 82% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.