Sportfreunde Lotte vs Bergisch Gladbach Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.25 expected goals for Sportfreunde Lotte and 1.38 for Bergisch Gladbach, a combined total of 2.63. That distribution gives Bergisch Gladbach the largest share of the 1X2 market at 40%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 49% for over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 40% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Draw/Away

66.0% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.25 – 1.38

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Sportfreunde Lotte home form
3 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Bergisch Gladbach away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Bergisch Gladbach to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 40%, against 34% / 26% / 40% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.25 goals for Sportfreunde Lotte and 1.38 for Bergisch Gladbach, a combined 2.63 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Sportfreunde Lotte win34%

Draw26%

Bergisch Gladbach win40%

Double chance 1X

60%

Double chance 12

74%

Double chance X2

66%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals74%

Over 2.5 goals49%

Over 3.5 goals27%

Both teams to score53%

Correct score

1–112.5%
0–110.0%
1–09.1%
1–28.6%
2–17.8%

Recent form

Sportfreunde Lotte

2026-10-24T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Sportfreunde Siegen · 1-4 (L)
2026-10-17T12:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Bocholt · 0-1 (L)
2026-10-10T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Paderborn II · 1-0 (W)
2026-10-03T12:00:00.000Z · A vs SV Rodinghausen · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-26T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Borussia M'gladbach II · 0-5 (L)

Bergisch Gladbach

2026-10-24T12:00:00.000Z · H vs SV Rodinghausen · 1-1 (D)
2026-10-17T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Borussia M'gladbach II · 1-2 (L)
2026-10-10T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Schalke 04 II · 1-5 (L)
2026-10-03T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Hilden · 2-4 (L)
2026-09-26T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Westfalia Rhynern · 4-2 (W)

Head-to-head

2021-04-07T17:30:00.000Z · Sportfreunde Lotte 2-0 Bergisch Gladbach (Regionalliga - West)
2020-11-04T18:30:00.000Z · Sportfreunde Lotte 2-2 Bergisch Gladbach (Regionalliga - West)
2019-10-26T12:00:00.000Z · Sportfreunde Lotte 4-0 Bergisch Gladbach (Regionalliga - West)

Regionalliga - West table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Borussia Dortmund II	14	10	4	0	17	34
2	Rot-weiss Oberhausen	13	10	1	2	19	31
3	FC Gutersloh	14	9	2	3	11	29
4	Borussia M'gladbach II	14	8	2	4	13	26
5	Sportfreunde Siegen	14	7	4	3	11	25
6	Köln II	14	6	3	5	3	21
7	Westfalia Rhynern	14	6	3	5	-2	21
8	Schalke 04 II	14	6	2	6	2	20
9	Hilden	14	5	4	5	-5	19
10	Bonner SC	14	4	6	4	1	18
11	FC Bocholt	14	4	5	5	-3	17
12	Bergisch Gladbach	14	5	2	7	-8	17
13	Bochum II	13	4	3	6	-5	15
14	Paderborn II	13	3	5	5	-4	14
15	SG Wattenscheid 09	13	3	3	7	-6	12
16	SV Rodinghausen	14	2	4	8	-7	10
17	Wiedenbrück	14	2	2	10	-19	8
18	Sportfreunde Lotte	14	1	3	10	-18	6

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 66.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 53% and over 2.5 goals at 49%.

A 66% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.