Sportfreunde Lotte vs Hilden Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.17 expected goals for Sportfreunde Lotte and 1.42 for Hilden, a combined total of 2.59. That distribution gives Hilden the largest share of the 1X2 market at 43%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 48% for over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 43% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Draw/Away

69.0% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.17 – 1.42

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Sportfreunde Lotte home form
0 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Hilden away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Hilden to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 43%, against 31% / 26% / 43% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.17 goals for Sportfreunde Lotte and 1.42 for Hilden, a combined 2.59 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Sportfreunde Lotte win31%

Draw26%

Hilden win43%

Double chance 1X

57%

Double chance 12

74%

Double chance X2

69%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals73%

Over 2.5 goals48%

Over 3.5 goals26%

Both teams to score52%

Correct score

1–112.5%
0–110.7%
1–28.9%
1–08.8%
0–27.6%

Recent form

Sportfreunde Lotte

2026-10-03T12:00:00.000Z · A vs SV Rodinghausen · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-26T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Borussia M'gladbach II · 0-5 (L)
2026-09-19T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Schalke 04 II · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-12T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Hilden · 0-3 (L)
2026-09-05T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Westfalia Rhynern · 2-3 (L)

Hilden

2026-10-03T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Bergisch Gladbach · 4-2 (W)
2026-09-26T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Köln II · 3-4 (L)
2026-09-19T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Bochum II · 2-4 (L)
2026-09-12T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Sportfreunde Lotte · 3-0 (W)
2026-09-06T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Rot-weiss Oberhausen · 0-3 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Regionalliga - West table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Rot-weiss Oberhausen	12	10	1	1	21	31
2	Borussia Dortmund II	12	8	4	0	13	28
3	Borussia M'gladbach II	12	7	2	3	13	23
4	FC Gutersloh	12	7	2	3	8	23
5	Sportfreunde Siegen	12	5	4	3	6	19
6	Bonner SC	12	4	6	2	4	18
7	Schalke 04 II	11	6	0	5	4	18
8	Westfalia Rhynern	12	5	2	5	-3	17
9	Bergisch Gladbach	12	5	1	6	-7	16
10	Hilden	12	4	3	5	-6	15
11	Köln II	11	4	2	5	0	14
12	Bochum II	12	4	2	6	-5	14
13	FC Bocholt	12	3	4	5	-4	13
14	Paderborn II	12	3	4	5	-4	13
15	SG Wattenscheid 09	12	3	3	6	-5	12
16	SV Rodinghausen	12	2	3	7	-6	9
17	Wiedenbrück	12	2	2	8	-15	8
18	Sportfreunde Lotte	12	1	3	8	-14	6

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 69.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 52% and over 2.5 goals at 48%.

A 69% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.