Sportfreunde Lotte vs Paderborn II Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.25 expected goals for Sportfreunde Lotte and 1.88 for Paderborn II, a combined total of 3.13. That distribution gives Paderborn II the largest share of the 1X2 market at 52%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 60% for over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 52% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Paderborn II win

52.0% probability

Low confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.25 – 1.88

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Sportfreunde Lotte home form
3 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Paderborn II away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Paderborn II to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 52%, against 25% / 23% / 52% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.25 goals for Sportfreunde Lotte and 1.88 for Paderborn II, a combined 3.13 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Sportfreunde Lotte win25%

Draw23%

Paderborn II win52%

Double chance 1X

48%

Double chance 12

77%

Double chance X2

75%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals82%

Over 2.5 goals60%

Over 3.5 goals38%

Both teams to score60%

Correct score

1–110.3%
1–29.7%
0–18.2%
0–27.7%
2–16.4%

Recent form

Sportfreunde Lotte

2026-10-24T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Sportfreunde Siegen · 1-4 (L)
2026-10-17T12:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Bocholt · 0-1 (L)
2026-10-10T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Paderborn II · 1-0 (W)
2026-10-03T12:00:00.000Z · A vs SV Rodinghausen · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-26T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Borussia M'gladbach II · 0-5 (L)

Paderborn II

2026-10-10T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Sportfreunde Lotte · 0-1 (L)
2026-10-04T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Rot-weiss Oberhausen · 0-4 (L)
2026-09-25T17:30:00.000Z · A vs FC Gutersloh · 3-1 (W)
2026-09-21T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Borussia Dortmund II · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-12T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Wiedenbrück · 0-1 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Regionalliga - West table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Borussia Dortmund II	14	10	4	0	17	34
2	Rot-weiss Oberhausen	13	10	1	2	19	31
3	FC Gutersloh	14	9	2	3	11	29
4	Borussia M'gladbach II	14	8	2	4	13	26
5	Sportfreunde Siegen	14	7	4	3	11	25
6	Köln II	14	6	3	5	3	21
7	Westfalia Rhynern	14	6	3	5	-2	21
8	Schalke 04 II	14	6	2	6	2	20
9	Hilden	14	5	4	5	-5	19
10	Bonner SC	14	4	6	4	1	18
11	FC Bocholt	14	4	5	5	-3	17
12	Bergisch Gladbach	14	5	2	7	-8	17
13	Bochum II	13	4	3	6	-5	15
14	Paderborn II	13	3	5	5	-4	14
15	SG Wattenscheid 09	13	3	3	7	-6	12
16	SV Rodinghausen	14	2	4	8	-7	10
17	Wiedenbrück	14	2	2	10	-19	8
18	Sportfreunde Lotte	14	1	3	10	-18	6

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Paderborn II win, at 52.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 60% and over 2.5 goals at 60%.

A 52% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.