Sportfreunde Lotte vs Rot-weiss Oberhausen Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 0.78 expected goals for Sportfreunde Lotte and 2.43 for Rot-weiss Oberhausen, a combined total of 3.20. That distribution gives Rot-weiss Oberhausen the largest share of the 1X2 market at 74%, with the draw at 16%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 62% for over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score, with 0–2 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 74% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Rot-weiss Oberhausen win

73.8% probability

High confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

0.78 – 2.43

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Sportfreunde Lotte home form
3 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Rot-weiss Oberhausen to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 74%, against 10% / 16% / 74% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.78 goals for Sportfreunde Lotte and 2.43 for Rot-weiss Oberhausen, a combined 3.20 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 62% and both teams to score at 49%, with 0–2 the single most likely scoreline at 12%.

Match result (1X2)

Sportfreunde Lotte win10%

Draw16%

Rot-weiss Oberhausen win74%

Double chance 1X

26%

Double chance 12

84%

Double chance X2

90%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals83%

Over 2.5 goals62%

Over 3.5 goals40%

Both teams to score49%

Correct score

0–212.0%
0–19.9%
0–39.7%
1–29.3%
1–17.7%

Recent form

Sportfreunde Lotte

2026-10-24T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Sportfreunde Siegen · 1-4 (L)
2026-10-17T12:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Bocholt · 0-1 (L)
2026-10-10T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Paderborn II · 1-0 (W)
2026-10-03T12:00:00.000Z · A vs SV Rodinghausen · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-26T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Borussia M'gladbach II · 0-5 (L)

Rot-weiss Oberhausen

2026-10-17T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Sportfreunde Siegen · 1-3 (L)
2026-10-10T12:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Bocholt · 3-1 (W)
2026-10-04T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Paderborn II · 4-0 (W)
2026-09-27T12:00:00.000Z · H vs SV Rodinghausen · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-24T17:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Schalke 04 · 2-5 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Regionalliga - West table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Rot-weiss Oberhausen	14	11	1	2	22	34
2	Borussia Dortmund II	14	10	4	0	17	34
3	FC Gutersloh	14	9	2	3	11	29
4	Borussia M'gladbach II	14	8	2	4	13	26
5	Sportfreunde Siegen	14	7	4	3	11	25
6	Köln II	14	6	3	5	3	21
7	Westfalia Rhynern	14	6	3	5	-2	21
8	Schalke 04 II	14	6	2	6	2	20
9	Hilden	14	5	4	5	-5	19
10	Bonner SC	14	4	6	4	1	18
11	FC Bocholt	14	4	5	5	-3	17
12	Bergisch Gladbach	14	5	2	7	-8	17
13	Bochum II	13	4	3	6	-5	15
14	Paderborn II	13	3	5	5	-4	14
15	SG Wattenscheid 09	14	3	3	8	-9	12
16	SV Rodinghausen	14	2	4	8	-7	10
17	Wiedenbrück	14	2	2	10	-19	8
18	Sportfreunde Lotte	14	1	3	10	-18	6

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Rot-weiss Oberhausen win, at 73.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–2.

It puts both teams scoring at 49% and over 2.5 goals at 62%.

A 74% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.