· Analysis updated 06:49 UTC
Sportfreunde Schwaig vs Kirchanschöring Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.74 expected goals for Sportfreunde Schwaig and 0.97 for Kirchanschöring, a combined total of 3.71. That distribution gives Sportfreunde Schwaig the largest share of the 1X2 market at 74%, with the draw at 15%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 71% for over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 74% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Sportfreunde Schwaig win
74.4% probability
Expected goals
2.74 – 0.97
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Sportfreunde Schwaig home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Kirchanschöring away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Sportfreunde Schwaig to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 74%, against 74% / 15% / 11% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.74 goals for Sportfreunde Schwaig and 0.97 for Kirchanschöring, a combined 3.71 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
89%
Double chance 12
85%
Double chance X2
26%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–09.2%
- 2–18.9%
- 3–08.4%
- 3–18.1%
- 1–06.7%
Recent form
Sportfreunde Schwaig
- 2026-08-28T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Schalding-Heining · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-08-23T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Erlbach · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-18T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Schwabmünchen · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-08-14T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Kirchanschöring · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-08T12:30:00.000Z · A vs TuS Geretsried · 1-2 (L)
Kirchanschöring
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Pipinsried · 2-5 (L)
- 2026-09-12T13:00:00.000Z · H vs 1860 München II · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-05T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Kottern · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-29T13:00:00.000Z · H vs 1860 Rosenheim · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-08-22T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Ismaning · 0-4 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Oberliga - Bayern Süd table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Pipinsried | 16 | 10 | 3 | 3 | 21 | 33 |
| 2 | Erlbach | 16 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 13 | 32 |
| 3 | 1880 Wasserburg | 16 | 10 | 1 | 5 | 11 | 31 |
| 4 | Pfaffenhofen | 16 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 29 |
| 5 | Landshut | 16 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 11 | 28 |
| 6 | Hankofen-Hailing | 16 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 8 | 28 |
| 7 | Sportfreunde Schwaig | 16 | 6 | 9 | 1 | 16 | 27 |
| 8 | Ismaning | 16 | 7 | 2 | 7 | 8 | 23 |
| 9 | 1860 München II | 16 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 21 |
| 10 | Schwabmünchen | 16 | 5 | 4 | 7 | -1 | 19 |
| 11 | Heimstetten | 16 | 4 | 7 | 5 | -2 | 19 |
| 12 | Gundelfingen | 16 | 4 | 6 | 6 | -2 | 18 |
| 13 | Kottern | 16 | 4 | 6 | 6 | -6 | 18 |
| 14 | Deisenhofen | 16 | 4 | 4 | 8 | -16 | 16 |
| 15 | 1860 Rosenheim | 16 | 3 | 6 | 7 | -9 | 15 |
| 16 | Kirchanschöring | 16 | 4 | 3 | 9 | -13 | 15 |
| 17 | Schalding-Heining | 16 | 2 | 4 | 10 | -27 | 10 |
| 18 | TuS Geretsried | 16 | 2 | 3 | 11 | -19 | 9 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Sportfreunde Schwaig win, at 74.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 58% and over 2.5 goals at 71%.
A 74% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.