· Analysis updated 05:19 UTC
Sportfreunde Schwaig vs SpVgg Unterhaching Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.53 expected goals for Sportfreunde Schwaig and 1.22 for SpVgg Unterhaching, a combined total of 2.75. That distribution gives Sportfreunde Schwaig the largest share of the 1X2 market at 45%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 52% for over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 45% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
69.7% probability
Expected goals
1.53 – 1.22
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Sportfreunde Schwaig home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
SpVgg Unterhaching away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Sportfreunde Schwaig to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 45%, against 45% / 25% / 30% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.53 goals for Sportfreunde Schwaig and 1.22 for SpVgg Unterhaching, a combined 2.75 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
70%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
56%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.9%
- 1–09.8%
- 2–19.1%
- 0–17.8%
- 2–07.5%
Recent form
Sportfreunde Schwaig
- 2026-08-28T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Schalding-Heining · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-08-23T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Erlbach · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-18T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Schwabmünchen · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-08-14T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Kirchanschöring · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-08T12:30:00.000Z · A vs TuS Geretsried · 1-2 (L)
SpVgg Unterhaching
- 2026-10-24T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Ansbach · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-17T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Vilzing · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-13T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Landsberg · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-10-09T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Bayern München II · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-02T17:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Schweinfurt 05 · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 69.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 55% and over 2.5 goals at 52%.
A 70% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.