· Analysis updated 09:57 UTC
Sportfreunde Schwaig vs SSV Jahn Regensburg Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.93 expected goals for Sportfreunde Schwaig and 1.93 for SSV Jahn Regensburg, a combined total of 2.85. That distribution gives SSV Jahn Regensburg the largest share of the 1X2 market at 61%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 54% for over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 61% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
SSV Jahn Regensburg win
60.8% probability
Expected goals
0.93 – 1.93
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Sportfreunde Schwaig home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
SSV Jahn Regensburg away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates SSV Jahn Regensburg to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 61%, against 18% / 22% / 61% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.93 goals for Sportfreunde Schwaig and 1.93 for SSV Jahn Regensburg, a combined 2.85 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
39%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
83%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–111.1%
- 0–210.7%
- 1–110.3%
- 1–29.9%
- 0–36.9%
Recent form
Sportfreunde Schwaig
- 2026-10-23T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Deisenhofen · 5-0 (W)
- 2026-10-16T17:30:00.000Z · H vs 1860 München II · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-10-10T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Landshut · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-02T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Kottern · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-25T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Hankofen-Hailing · 3-1 (W)
SSV Jahn Regensburg
- 2026-10-23T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Rot-Weiß Essen · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-17T12:00:00.000Z · H vs SV Wehen · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-14T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Verl · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-10T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Havelse · 5-0 (W)
- 2026-10-01T12:00:00.000Z · H vs WSG Wattens · 0-6 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is SSV Jahn Regensburg win, at 60.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 52% and over 2.5 goals at 54%.
A 61% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.