Leimbachstadion · Analysis updated 14:56 UTC
Sportfreunde Siegen vs Borussia Dortmund II Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.50 expected goals for Sportfreunde Siegen and 1.60 for Borussia Dortmund II, a combined total of 3.10. That distribution gives Borussia Dortmund II the largest share of the 1X2 market at 40%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 60% for over 2.5 goals and 62% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 40% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
64.1% probability
Expected goals
1.50 – 1.60
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Sportfreunde Siegen home form
5 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Borussia Dortmund II away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Borussia Dortmund II to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 40%, against 36% / 24% / 40% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.50 goals for Sportfreunde Siegen and 1.60 for Borussia Dortmund II, a combined 3.10 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
60%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
64%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.8%
- 1–28.6%
- 2–18.1%
- 0–17.2%
- 1–06.8%
Recent form
Sportfreunde Siegen
- 2026-10-10T12:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Gutersloh · 5-0 (W)
- 2026-10-04T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Borussia Dortmund II · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-30T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Wiedenbrück · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-24T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Borussia Mönchengladbach · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-18T17:30:00.000Z · H vs SG Wattenscheid 09 · 2-1 (W)
Borussia Dortmund II
- 2026-09-21T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Paderborn II · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-16T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Westfalia Rhynern · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-13T12:00:00.000Z · H vs SV Rodinghausen · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-05T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Borussia M'gladbach II · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-01T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Schalke 04 II · 3-1 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-04-08T17:00:00.000Z · Sportfreunde Siegen 0-1 Borussia Dortmund II (Regionalliga - West)
- 2025-08-03T12:00:00.000Z · Sportfreunde Siegen 2-2 Borussia Dortmund II (Regionalliga - West)
Regionalliga - West table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rot-weiss Oberhausen | 12 | 10 | 1 | 1 | 21 | 31 |
| 2 | Borussia Dortmund II | 12 | 8 | 4 | 0 | 13 | 28 |
| 3 | Borussia M'gladbach II | 12 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 13 | 23 |
| 4 | FC Gutersloh | 12 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 23 |
| 5 | Sportfreunde Siegen | 12 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 6 | 19 |
| 6 | Bonner SC | 12 | 4 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 18 |
| 7 | Schalke 04 II | 11 | 6 | 0 | 5 | 4 | 18 |
| 8 | Westfalia Rhynern | 12 | 5 | 2 | 5 | -3 | 17 |
| 9 | Bergisch Gladbach | 12 | 5 | 1 | 6 | -7 | 16 |
| 10 | Hilden | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | -6 | 15 |
| 11 | Köln II | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 14 |
| 12 | Bochum II | 12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | -5 | 14 |
| 13 | FC Bocholt | 12 | 3 | 4 | 5 | -4 | 13 |
| 14 | Paderborn II | 12 | 3 | 4 | 5 | -4 | 13 |
| 15 | SG Wattenscheid 09 | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | -5 | 12 |
| 16 | SV Rodinghausen | 12 | 2 | 3 | 7 | -6 | 9 |
| 17 | Wiedenbrück | 12 | 2 | 2 | 8 | -15 | 8 |
| 18 | Sportfreunde Lotte | 12 | 1 | 3 | 8 | -14 | 6 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 64.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 62% and over 2.5 goals at 60%.
A 64% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.