Leimbachstadion · Analysis updated 14:56 UTC
Sportfreunde Siegen vs SG Wattenscheid 09 Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.27 expected goals for Sportfreunde Siegen and 1.29 for SG Wattenscheid 09, a combined total of 3.55. That distribution gives Sportfreunde Siegen the largest share of the 1X2 market at 60%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 69% for over 2.5 goals and 65% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 60% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Sportfreunde Siegen win
59.5% probability
Expected goals
2.27 – 1.29
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Sportfreunde Siegen home form
5 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
SG Wattenscheid 09 away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Sportfreunde Siegen to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 60%, against 60% / 20% / 21% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.27 goals for Sportfreunde Siegen and 1.29 for SG Wattenscheid 09, a combined 3.55 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
79%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
41%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–19.5%
- 1–18.4%
- 2–07.4%
- 3–17.1%
- 1–06.5%
Recent form
Sportfreunde Siegen
- 2026-10-10T12:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Gutersloh · 5-0 (W)
- 2026-10-04T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Borussia Dortmund II · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-30T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Wiedenbrück · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-24T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Borussia Mönchengladbach · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-18T17:30:00.000Z · H vs SG Wattenscheid 09 · 2-1 (W)
SG Wattenscheid 09
- 2026-09-27T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Bonner SC · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-18T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Sportfreunde Siegen · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-12T12:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Bocholt · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-06T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Paderborn II · 2-5 (L)
- 2026-09-02T17:00:00.000Z · H vs SV Rodinghausen · 2-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Regionalliga - West table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rot-weiss Oberhausen | 12 | 10 | 1 | 1 | 21 | 31 |
| 2 | Borussia Dortmund II | 12 | 8 | 4 | 0 | 13 | 28 |
| 3 | Borussia M'gladbach II | 12 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 13 | 23 |
| 4 | FC Gutersloh | 12 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 23 |
| 5 | Sportfreunde Siegen | 12 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 6 | 19 |
| 6 | Bonner SC | 12 | 4 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 18 |
| 7 | Schalke 04 II | 11 | 6 | 0 | 5 | 4 | 18 |
| 8 | Westfalia Rhynern | 12 | 5 | 2 | 5 | -3 | 17 |
| 9 | Bergisch Gladbach | 12 | 5 | 1 | 6 | -7 | 16 |
| 10 | Hilden | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | -6 | 15 |
| 11 | Köln II | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 14 |
| 12 | Bochum II | 12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | -5 | 14 |
| 13 | FC Bocholt | 12 | 3 | 4 | 5 | -4 | 13 |
| 14 | Paderborn II | 12 | 3 | 4 | 5 | -4 | 13 |
| 15 | SG Wattenscheid 09 | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | -5 | 12 |
| 16 | SV Rodinghausen | 12 | 2 | 3 | 7 | -6 | 9 |
| 17 | Wiedenbrück | 12 | 2 | 2 | 8 | -15 | 8 |
| 18 | Sportfreunde Lotte | 12 | 1 | 3 | 8 | -14 | 6 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Sportfreunde Siegen win, at 59.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 65% and over 2.5 goals at 69%.
A 60% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.