· Analysis updated 13:46 UTC
Sporting Ben Arous vs US Tataouine Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.87 expected goals for Sporting Ben Arous and 0.99 for US Tataouine, a combined total of 2.86. That distribution gives Sporting Ben Arous the largest share of the 1X2 market at 58%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 54% for over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 58% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Sporting Ben Arous win
57.8% probability
Expected goals
1.87 – 0.99
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Sporting Ben Arous home form
5 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
US Tataouine away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Sporting Ben Arous to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 58%, against 58% / 22% / 20% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.87 goals for Sporting Ben Arous and 0.99 for US Tataouine, a combined 2.86 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
80%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
42%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–010.7%
- 1–110.6%
- 2–010.0%
- 2–19.9%
- 3–06.2%
Recent form
Sporting Ben Arous
- 2026-10-18T13:30:00.000Z · A vs BS Bouhajla · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-11T13:30:00.000Z · H vs US Tataouine · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · A vs AS Agareb · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs EM Mahdia · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-05-11T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Menzel Bourguiba · 6-0 (W)
US Tataouine
- 2026-10-18T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Kerkennah · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-11T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Sporting Ben Arous · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Stade Soussien · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs AS Soliman · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-05-25T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Stade Gabesien · 0-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Ligue 2 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | AS Kasserine | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 12 |
| 2 | M'saken | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 11 |
| 3 | EM Mahdia | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 11 |
| 4 | Mégrine | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 10 |
| 5 | Bouchamma | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 10 |
| 6 | Korba | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 9 |
| 7 | AS Soliman | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 8 |
| 8 | Sporting Ben Arous | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 8 |
| 9 | Ksour Essef | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 8 |
| 10 | Stade Soussien | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 7 |
| 11 | Jendouba Sport | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 7 |
| 12 | CS Chebba | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 7 |
| 13 | US Tataouine | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 7 |
| 14 | Redeyef | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 6 |
| 15 | Kalaâ Sport | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 6 |
| 16 | Sfax Railways | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 6 |
| 17 | JS Kairouanaise | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 6 |
| 18 | Ariana | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5 |
| 19 | Stade Gabesien | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 |
| 20 | Béni-Khalled | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 5 |
| 21 | BS Bouhajla | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -3 | 5 |
| 22 | Olympique du Kef | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 4 |
| 23 | Kerkennah | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 4 |
| 24 | EGS Gafsa | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -2 | 3 |
| 25 | AS Agareb | 5 | 0 | 3 | 2 | -5 | 3 |
| 26 | AS Gabes | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | -4 | 1 |
| 27 | Moknine | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -7 | 1 |
| 28 | CO Medenine | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -8 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Sporting Ben Arous win, at 57.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 53% and over 2.5 goals at 54%.
A 58% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.