· Analysis updated 20:18 UTC
Sporting Braga U19 vs Chaves U19 Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.93 expected goals for Sporting Braga U19 and 1.18 for Chaves U19, a combined total of 3.10. That distribution gives Sporting Braga U19 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 55%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 60% for over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 55% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Sporting Braga U19 win
54.8% probability
Expected goals
1.93 – 1.18
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Sporting Braga U19 home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Chaves U19 away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Sporting Braga U19 to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 55%, against 55% / 22% / 23% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.93 goals for Sporting Braga U19 and 1.18 for Chaves U19, a combined 3.10 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
77%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
45%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.2%
- 2–19.8%
- 1–08.7%
- 2–08.3%
- 3–16.3%
Recent form
Sporting Braga U19
- 2026-09-05T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Vizela U19 · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-08-29T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Gil Vicente U19 · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-22T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Feirense U19 · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-08-15T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Academico Viseu U19 · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-04-18T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Vitoria Guimaraes U19 · 4-2 (W)
Chaves U19
- 2026-04-25T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Moreirense U19 · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-04-11T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Sporting Braga U19 · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-04-03T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Vitoria Guimaraes U19 · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-03-14T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Pacos Ferreira U19 · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-03-07T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Vizela U19 · 2-2 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Júniores U19 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vitoria Guimaraes U19 | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 19 |
| 1 | Benfica U19 | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 13 | 18 |
| 2 | Porto U19 | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 12 | 19 |
| 2 | Sporting CP U19 | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 18 |
| 3 | Gil Vicente U19 | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 14 |
| 3 | Santa Clara U19 | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 8 | 15 |
| 4 | Rio Ave U19 | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 14 |
| 4 | Torreense U19 | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 14 |
| 5 | Academico Viseu U19 | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 13 |
| 5 | Oriental U19 | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 12 |
| 6 | Sporting Braga U19 | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -1 | 11 |
| 6 | Casa Pia U19 | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 12 |
| 7 | Feirense U19 | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 11 |
| 7 | Mafra U19 | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | -4 | 12 |
| 8 | Famalicão U19 | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | -4 | 10 |
| 8 | SC Farense U19 | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -6 | 8 |
| 9 | Moreirense U19 | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | -3 | 9 |
| 9 | União Leiria U19 | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | -11 | 6 |
| 10 | Vizela U19 | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -10 | 8 |
| 10 | Alverca U19 | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | -7 | 6 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Sporting Braga U19 win, at 54.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 59% and over 2.5 goals at 60%.
A 55% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.