· Analysis updated 07:30 UTC
Sporting Braga W vs Marítimo W Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 4.07 expected goals for Sporting Braga W and 0.57 for Marítimo W, a combined total of 4.64. That distribution gives Sporting Braga W the largest share of the 1X2 market at 93%, with the draw at 5%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 82% for over 2.5 goals and 42% for both teams to score, with 4–0 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 93% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Sporting Braga W win
93.0% probability
Expected goals
4.07 – 0.57
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Sporting Braga W home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Marítimo W away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Sporting Braga W to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 93%, against 93% / 5% / 2% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 4.07 goals for Sporting Braga W and 0.57 for Marítimo W, a combined 4.64 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
98%
Double chance 12
95%
Double chance X2
7%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 4–011.0%
- 3–010.8%
- 5–09.0%
- 2–08.0%
- 4–16.3%
Recent form
Sporting Braga W
- 2026-05-10T13:45:00.000Z · H vs Vitoria Guimaraes W · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-05-03T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Racing Power W · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-04-25T17:30:00.000Z · H vs SL Benfica W · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-04-04T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Sporting CP W · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-03-22T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Rio Ave W · 0-0 (D)
Marítimo W
- 2026-05-30T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Albergaria/Durit W · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-05-24T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Albergaria/Durit W · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-05-10T13:45:00.000Z · H vs Valadares Gaia W · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-05-03T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Damaiense W · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-04-25T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Vitoria Guimaraes W · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
1a Divisão - Women table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Torreense W | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 14 | 9 |
| 2 | Sporting CP W | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 7 |
| 3 | SL Benfica W | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 6 |
| 4 | Sporting Braga W | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 5 |
| 5 | Porto W | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 5 |
| 6 | Racing Power W | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 4 |
| 7 | Valadares Gaia W | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 3 |
| 8 | Vitoria Guimaraes W | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -5 | 0 |
| 9 | Rio Ave W | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -6 | 0 |
| 10 | Marítimo W | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -18 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Sporting Braga W win, at 93.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 4–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 42% and over 2.5 goals at 82%.
A 93% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.