· Analysis updated 16:50 UTC
Sporting Braga W vs Valadares Gaia W Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.79 expected goals for Sporting Braga W and 0.74 for Valadares Gaia W, a combined total of 2.52. That distribution gives Sporting Braga W the largest share of the 1X2 market at 62%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 46% for over 2.5 goals and 43% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 62% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Sporting Braga W win
62.4% probability
Expected goals
1.79 – 0.74
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Sporting Braga W home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Sporting Braga W to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 62%, against 62% / 23% / 15% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.79 goals for Sporting Braga W and 0.74 for Valadares Gaia W, a combined 2.52 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 46% and both teams to score at 43%, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
85%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
38%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–014.3%
- 2–012.8%
- 1–110.6%
- 2–19.4%
- 0–08.0%
Recent form
Sporting Braga W
- 2026-05-10T13:45:00.000Z · H vs Vitoria Guimaraes W · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-05-03T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Racing Power W · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-04-25T17:30:00.000Z · H vs SL Benfica W · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-04-04T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Sporting CP W · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-03-22T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Rio Ave W · 0-0 (D)
Valadares Gaia W
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
1a Divisão - Women table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Torreense W | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 14 | 9 |
| 2 | Sporting CP W | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 7 |
| 3 | SL Benfica W | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 6 |
| 4 | Sporting Braga W | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 5 |
| 5 | Porto W | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 5 |
| 6 | Racing Power W | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 4 |
| 7 | Valadares Gaia W | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 3 |
| 8 | Vitoria Guimaraes W | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -5 | 0 |
| 9 | Rio Ave W | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -6 | 0 |
| 10 | Marítimo W | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -18 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Sporting Braga W win, at 62.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 43% and over 2.5 goals at 46%.
A 62% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.