· Analysis updated 13:32 UTC
Sporting Charleroi II vs Habay-la-Neuve Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.78 expected goals for Sporting Charleroi II and 1.00 for Habay-la-Neuve, a combined total of 2.78. That distribution gives Sporting Charleroi II the largest share of the 1X2 market at 56%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 52% for over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 56% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Sporting Charleroi II win
55.6% probability
Expected goals
1.78 – 1.00
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Sporting Charleroi II home form
4 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Habay-la-Neuve away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Sporting Charleroi II to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 56%, against 56% / 23% / 21% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.78 goals for Sporting Charleroi II and 1.00 for Habay-la-Neuve, a combined 2.78 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
79%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
44%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–011.1%
- 1–111.1%
- 2–09.8%
- 2–19.8%
- 0–06.2%
Recent form
Sporting Charleroi II
- 2026-09-19T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Rochefort · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-12T18:00:00.000Z · A vs RWDM · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-06T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Flénu · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-08-30T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Albert Quévy-Mons · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-26T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Tubize · 0-1 (L)
Habay-la-Neuve
- 2026-10-03T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Tubize · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-30T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Sporting Charleroi II · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-26T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Olympic Charleroi · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Flénu · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-13T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Standard Liège II · 0-0 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
First Amateur Division table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | RWDM | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 19 |
| 2 | Rochefort | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 10 | 17 |
| 3 | Meux | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 16 |
| 4 | Union Saint-Gilloise II | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 14 |
| 5 | Tubize | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 14 |
| 6 | Albert Quévy-Mons | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 11 |
| 7 | Standard Liège II | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 10 |
| 8 | Sporting Charleroi II | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 10 |
| 9 | Olympic Charleroi | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -7 | 9 |
| 10 | Onhaye | 8 | 2 | 0 | 6 | -10 | 6 |
| 11 | Habay-la-Neuve | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -5 | 6 |
| 12 | Flénu | 8 | 0 | 1 | 7 | -16 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Sporting Charleroi II win, at 55.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 53% and over 2.5 goals at 52%.
A 56% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.