· Analysis updated 13:49 UTC
Sporting CP vs Lask Linz Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.43 expected goals for Sporting CP and 1.35 for Lask Linz, a combined total of 3.78. That distribution gives Sporting CP the largest share of the 1X2 market at 61%, with the draw at 19%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 73% for over 2.5 goals and 68% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 61% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Sporting CP win
61.1% probability
Expected goals
2.43 – 1.35
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Sporting CP home form
13 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Lask Linz away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Sporting CP to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 61%, against 61% / 19% / 20% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.43 goals for Sporting CP and 1.35 for Lask Linz, a combined 3.78 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
80%
Double chance 12
81%
Double chance X2
39%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–19.1%
- 1–17.5%
- 3–17.4%
- 2–06.7%
- 2–26.1%
Recent form
Sporting CP
- 2026-10-09T19:15:00.000Z · A vs SC Braga · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T19:30:00.000Z · H vs Arouca · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-13T19:30:00.000Z · A vs Famalicao · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-09T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Galatasaray · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-05T19:30:00.000Z · H vs Nacional · 2-0 (W)
Lask Linz
- 2026-10-02T12:30:00.000Z · H vs First Vienna · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-20T12:30:00.000Z · A vs TSV Hartberg · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-09-13T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Sturm Graz · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-08T16:45:00.000Z · A vs AEK Athens FC · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-05T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Deutschlandsberger SC · 6-1 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2020-10-01T19:00:00.000Z · Sporting CP 1-4 Lask Linz (UEFA Europa League)
- 2019-12-12T17:55:00.000Z · Sporting CP 0-3 Lask Linz (UEFA Europa League)
- 2019-10-03T19:00:00.000Z · Sporting CP 2-1 Lask Linz (UEFA Europa League)
UEFA Champions League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Barcelona | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 6 |
| 2 | Sporting CP | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 6 |
| 3 | Arsenal | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 6 |
| 4 | Bayern München | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 4 |
| 5 | Paris Saint Germain | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 3 |
| 6 | Como | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
| 7 | Manchester United | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 |
| 8 | VfB Stuttgart | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 9 | Manchester City | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 10 | Villarreal | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| 11 | Aston Villa | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 12 | Real Betis | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 13 | Atletico Madrid | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| 14 | Borussia Dortmund | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 15 | Liverpool | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 16 | Real Madrid | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 17 | AEK Athens FC | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 18 | Club Brugge KV | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 19 | Lens | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 3 |
| 20 | RB Leipzig | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 3 |
| 21 | Sabah FA | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 3 |
| 22 | AS Roma | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 23 | Shakhtar Donetsk | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 24 | Fenerbahçe | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 25 | PSV Eindhoven | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 |
| 26 | Viking | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 1 |
| 27 | Lask Linz | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 28 | Inter | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 |
| 29 | FC Porto | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 30 | Slavia Praha | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -3 | 0 |
| 31 | Napoli | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -3 | 0 |
| 32 | Lille | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -4 | 0 |
| 33 | Feyenoord | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -4 | 0 |
| 34 | Galatasaray | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -5 | 0 |
| 35 | Slovan Bratislava | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -5 | 0 |
| 36 | Bodo/Glimt | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -5 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Sporting CP win, at 61.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 68% and over 2.5 goals at 73%.
A 61% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.