· Analysis updated 20:46 UTC
Sporting CP vs Nottingham Forest Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.40 expected goals for Sporting CP and 1.03 for Nottingham Forest, a combined total of 3.43. That distribution gives Sporting CP the largest share of the 1X2 market at 68%, with the draw at 18%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 66% for over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 68% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Sporting CP win
67.7% probability
Expected goals
2.40 – 1.03
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Sporting CP home form
13 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Nottingham Forest away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Sporting CP to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 68%, against 68% / 18% / 15% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.40 goals for Sporting CP and 1.03 for Nottingham Forest, a combined 3.43 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
86%
Double chance 12
82%
Double chance X2
32%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–19.6%
- 2–09.4%
- 1–18.0%
- 1–07.8%
- 3–17.7%
Recent form
Sporting CP
- 2026-10-09T19:15:00.000Z · A vs SC Braga · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T19:30:00.000Z · H vs Arouca · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-13T19:30:00.000Z · A vs Famalicao · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-09T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Galatasaray · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-05T19:30:00.000Z · H vs Nacional · 2-0 (W)
Nottingham Forest
- 2026-09-19T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Coventry · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Aston Villa · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Tottenham · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-29T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Liverpool · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-08-25T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Leeds · 0-2 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-07-31T18:45:00.000Z · Sporting CP 4-1 Nottingham Forest (Friendlies Clubs)
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Sporting CP win, at 67.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 58% and over 2.5 goals at 66%.
A 68% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.