CGD Stadium Aurelio Pereira · Analysis updated 13:05 UTC
Sporting CP W vs Valadares Gaia W Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.92 expected goals for Sporting CP W and 0.64 for Valadares Gaia W, a combined total of 2.57. That distribution gives Sporting CP W the largest share of the 1X2 market at 68%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 47% for over 2.5 goals and 41% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 15%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 68% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Sporting CP W win
67.8% probability
Expected goals
1.92 – 0.64
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Sporting CP W home form
11 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Sporting CP W to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 68%, against 68% / 21% / 12% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.92 goals for Sporting CP W and 0.64 for Valadares Gaia W, a combined 2.57 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 47% and both teams to score at 41%, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 15%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
88%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
32%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–014.8%
- 2–014.2%
- 1–19.5%
- 2–19.1%
- 3–09.1%
Recent form
Sporting CP W
- 2026-09-30T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Brøndby W · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-27T13:45:00.000Z · A vs Sporting Braga W · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-23T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Brøndby W · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-09-18T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Marítimo W · 5-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Vitoria Guimaraes W · 2-0 (W)
Valadares Gaia W
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
1a Divisão - Women table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Torreense W | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 14 | 9 |
| 2 | Sporting CP W | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 7 |
| 3 | SL Benfica W | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 6 |
| 4 | Sporting Braga W | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 5 |
| 5 | Porto W | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 5 |
| 6 | Racing Power W | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 4 |
| 7 | Valadares Gaia W | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 3 |
| 8 | Vitoria Guimaraes W | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -5 | 0 |
| 9 | Rio Ave W | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -6 | 0 |
| 10 | Marítimo W | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -18 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Sporting CP W win, at 67.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 41% and over 2.5 goals at 47%.
A 68% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.