Estadio Alberto Gallardo · Analysis updated 15:06 UTC
Sporting Cristal vs Alianza Lima Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.60 expected goals for Sporting Cristal and 1.08 for Alianza Lima, a combined total of 2.68. That distribution gives Sporting Cristal the largest share of the 1X2 market at 50%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 50% for over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 50% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Sporting Cristal win
49.5% probability
Expected goals
1.60 – 1.08
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Sporting Cristal home form
15 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Alianza Lima away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Sporting Cristal to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 50%, against 50% / 25% / 26% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.60 goals for Sporting Cristal and 1.08 for Alianza Lima, a combined 2.68 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
74%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
50%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.9%
- 1–011.0%
- 2–19.5%
- 2–08.8%
- 0–17.4%
Recent form
Sporting Cristal
- 2026-10-01T20:00:00.000Z · H vs ADT · 5-0 (W)
- 2026-09-27T20:15:00.000Z · A vs ADT · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T20:30:00.000Z · H vs Atletico Grau · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-13T15:00:00.000Z · A vs UCV Moquegua · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-06T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Club Deportivo Los Chankas · 5-0 (W)
Alianza Lima
- 2026-10-01T01:00:00.000Z · H vs Palestino · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-19T01:00:00.000Z · H vs ADT · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T01:00:00.000Z · H vs Universitario · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-06T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Juan Pablo II College · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-30T00:30:00.000Z · H vs Deportivo Garcilaso · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Primera División table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Sporting Cristal win, at 49.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 53% and over 2.5 goals at 50%.
A 50% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.