· Analysis updated 16:36 UTC
Sporting Gijón II vs Llanera Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.09 expected goals for Sporting Gijón II and 1.22 for Llanera, a combined total of 3.31. That distribution gives Sporting Gijón II the largest share of the 1X2 market at 57%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 64% for over 2.5 goals and 62% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 57% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Sporting Gijón II win
57.4% probability
Expected goals
2.09 – 1.22
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Sporting Gijón II home form
11 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Llanera away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 7 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Sporting Gijón II to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 57%, against 57% / 21% / 22% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.09 goals for Sporting Gijón II and 1.22 for Llanera, a combined 3.31 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
78%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
43%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–19.7%
- 1–19.3%
- 2–08.0%
- 1–07.6%
- 3–16.8%
Recent form
Sporting Gijón II
- 2026-09-27T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Avilés Stadium · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-20T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Lealtad · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T09:30:00.000Z · H vs Llanes · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-06T15:45:00.000Z · A vs Praviano · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-29T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Llanes · 1-0 (W)
Llanera
- 2026-10-18T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Arosa · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-10-10T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Marino de Luanco · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-10-03T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Basconia · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-27T10:30:00.000Z · H vs Racing Santander II · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-20T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Gernika · 0-4 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Sporting Gijón II win, at 57.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 62% and over 2.5 goals at 64%.
A 57% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.