· Analysis updated 15:58 UTC
Sporting Gijón II vs Palencia CF Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.62 expected goals for Sporting Gijón II and 1.18 for Palencia CF, a combined total of 2.80. That distribution gives Sporting Gijón II the largest share of the 1X2 market at 48%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 53% for over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 48% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Sporting Gijón II win
47.7% probability
Expected goals
1.62 – 1.18
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Sporting Gijón II home form
11 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Palencia CF away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 7 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Sporting Gijón II to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 48%, against 48% / 25% / 28% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.62 goals for Sporting Gijón II and 1.18 for Palencia CF, a combined 2.80 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
72%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
52%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.6%
- 1–09.8%
- 2–19.4%
- 2–08.0%
- 0–17.1%
Recent form
Sporting Gijón II
- 2026-09-27T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Avilés Stadium · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-20T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Lealtad · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T09:30:00.000Z · H vs Llanes · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-06T15:45:00.000Z · A vs Praviano · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-29T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Llanes · 1-0 (W)
Palencia CF
- 2026-10-03T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Almazán · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-27T15:00:00.000Z · H vs UD Santa Marta · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Burgos Promesas · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-13T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Cultural Leonesa II · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-06T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Mirandés II · 2-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-08T10:30:00.000Z · Sporting Gijón II 1-1 Palencia CF (Friendlies Clubs)
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Sporting Gijón II win, at 47.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 56% and over 2.5 goals at 53%.
A 48% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.