· Analysis updated 15:07 UTC
Sporting Hasselt vs Beerschot VA Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.83 expected goals for Sporting Hasselt and 1.28 for Beerschot VA, a combined total of 2.10. That distribution gives Beerschot VA the largest share of the 1X2 market at 47%, with the draw at 29%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 35% for over 2.5 goals and 41% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 16%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 47% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Beerschot VA win
47.0% probability
Expected goals
0.83 – 1.28
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Sporting Hasselt home form
6 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Beerschot VA away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Beerschot VA to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 47%, against 24% / 29% / 47% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.83 goals for Sporting Hasselt and 1.28 for Beerschot VA, a combined 2.10 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
53%
Double chance 12
71%
Double chance X2
76%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–115.6%
- 1–112.9%
- 0–012.2%
- 1–010.1%
- 0–210.0%
Recent form
Sporting Hasselt
- 2026-09-26T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Mandel United · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Beerschot VA · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Seraing United · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-05T18:00:00.000Z · A vs KRC Genk II · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-08-28T18:00:00.000Z · H vs KAA Gent II · 0-2 (L)
Beerschot VA
- 2026-09-27T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Crossing Schaerbeek · 5-3 (W)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Sporting Hasselt · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-11T18:00:00.000Z · H vs K. Lierse S.K. · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-04T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Patro Eisden · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-08-29T14:00:00.000Z · A vs RSC Anderlecht II · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Challenger Pro League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Beerschot VA | 7 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 18 |
| 2 | Dender | 7 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 18 |
| 3 | AS Eupen | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 15 |
| 4 | Francs Borains | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 12 |
| 5 | Sporting Hasselt | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | -2 | 12 |
| 6 | Excelsior Virton | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 10 |
| 7 | Lokeren-Temse | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 10 |
| 8 | K. Lierse S.K. | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 8 |
| 9 | Club Brugge II | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | -2 | 8 |
| 10 | KAA Gent II | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | -2 | 8 |
| 11 | KRC Genk II | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -3 | 7 |
| 12 | Patro Eisden | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | -4 | 6 |
| 13 | Liège | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -7 | 5 |
| 14 | Seraing United | 7 | 0 | 2 | 5 | -7 | 2 |
| 15 | RSC Anderlecht II | 7 | 0 | 1 | 6 | -10 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Beerschot VA win, at 47.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 41% and over 2.5 goals at 35%.
A 47% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.