· Analysis updated 16:55 UTC
Sporting Hasselt vs Liège Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.02 expected goals for Sporting Hasselt and 1.37 for Liège, a combined total of 3.39. That distribution gives Sporting Hasselt the largest share of the 1X2 market at 53%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 66% for over 2.5 goals and 65% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 53% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Sporting Hasselt win
52.7% probability
Expected goals
2.02 – 1.37
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Sporting Hasselt home form
6 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Liège away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 7 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Sporting Hasselt to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 53%, against 53% / 22% / 26% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.02 goals for Sporting Hasselt and 1.37 for Liège, a combined 3.39 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
74%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
47%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–19.4%
- 1–19.3%
- 2–06.9%
- 1–06.8%
- 2–26.4%
Recent form
Sporting Hasselt
- 2026-09-26T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Mandel United · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Beerschot VA · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Seraing United · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-05T18:00:00.000Z · A vs KRC Genk II · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-08-28T18:00:00.000Z · H vs KAA Gent II · 0-2 (L)
Liège
- 2026-09-19T18:00:00.000Z · A vs AS Eupen · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-13T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Club Brugge II · 4-4 (D)
- 2026-09-06T14:00:00.000Z · A vs K. Lierse S.K. · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-29T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Dender · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-23T14:00:00.000Z · A vs KRC Genk II · 3-2 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Challenger Pro League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Beerschot VA | 7 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 18 |
| 2 | Dender | 7 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 18 |
| 3 | AS Eupen | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 15 |
| 4 | Francs Borains | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 12 |
| 5 | Sporting Hasselt | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | -2 | 12 |
| 6 | Excelsior Virton | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 10 |
| 7 | Lokeren-Temse | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 10 |
| 8 | K. Lierse S.K. | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 8 |
| 9 | Club Brugge II | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | -2 | 8 |
| 10 | KAA Gent II | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | -2 | 8 |
| 11 | KRC Genk II | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -3 | 7 |
| 12 | Patro Eisden | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | -4 | 6 |
| 13 | Liège | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -7 | 5 |
| 14 | Seraing United | 7 | 0 | 2 | 5 | -7 | 2 |
| 15 | RSC Anderlecht II | 7 | 0 | 1 | 6 | -10 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Sporting Hasselt win, at 52.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 65% and over 2.5 goals at 66%.
A 53% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.