Stedelijk Sportstadion · Analysis updated 12:14 UTC
Sporting Hasselt vs Lyra-Lierse Berlaar Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.86 expected goals for Sporting Hasselt and 1.33 for Lyra-Lierse Berlaar, a combined total of 3.19. That distribution gives Sporting Hasselt the largest share of the 1X2 market at 50%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 62% for over 2.5 goals and 62% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 50% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Sporting Hasselt win
49.8% probability
Expected goals
1.86 – 1.33
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Sporting Hasselt home form
6 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Lyra-Lierse Berlaar away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Sporting Hasselt to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 50%, against 50% / 23% / 28% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.86 goals for Sporting Hasselt and 1.33 for Lyra-Lierse Berlaar, a combined 3.19 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
72%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
50%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.2%
- 2–19.5%
- 1–07.6%
- 2–07.1%
- 1–26.8%
Recent form
Sporting Hasselt
- 2026-09-26T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Mandel United · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Beerschot VA · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Seraing United · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-05T18:00:00.000Z · A vs KRC Genk II · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-08-28T18:00:00.000Z · H vs KAA Gent II · 0-2 (L)
Lyra-Lierse Berlaar
- 2026-09-19T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Heist · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-12T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Hoogstraten · 4-4 (D)
- 2026-09-05T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Mandel United · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-29T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Thes Sport · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-04-26T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Houtvenne · 4-3 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
First Amateur Division table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rochefort | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 12 | 20 |
| 2 | Meux | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 19 |
| 3 | RWDM | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 19 |
| 4 | Union Saint-Gilloise II | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 17 |
| 5 | Albert Quévy-Mons | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 17 |
| 6 | Tubize | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 14 |
| 7 | Standard Liège II | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 13 |
| 8 | Olympic Charleroi | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | -9 | 12 |
| 9 | Sporting Charleroi II | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | -1 | 10 |
| 10 | Onhaye | 8 | 2 | 0 | 6 | -10 | 6 |
| 11 | Habay-la-Neuve | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -5 | 6 |
| 12 | Flénu | 9 | 0 | 1 | 8 | -17 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Sporting Hasselt win, at 49.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 62% and over 2.5 goals at 62%.
A 50% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.