USA · Major League Soccer · Matchweek 3100:30

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Sunday, 25 October 2026

Children's Mercy Park · Referee Ricardo Fierro · Analysis updated 07:57 UTC

Sporting Kansas City vs Austin Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.57 expected goals for Sporting Kansas City and 1.28 for Austin, a combined total of 2.85. That distribution gives Sporting Kansas City the largest share of the 1X2 market at 44%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 54% for over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 44% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Home/Draw

68.8% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model78/100

Expected goals

1.57 – 1.28

Model version

poisson-market-v1

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Sporting Kansas City home form
4 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Austin away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 6 of the last 9 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

Sporting Kansas City win44%

Draw25%

Austin win31%

Double chance 1X

69%

Double chance 12

75%

Double chance X2

56%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals78%

Over 2.5 goals54%

Over 3.5 goals32%

Both teams to score57%

Correct score

1–111.6%
2–19.1%
1–09.1%
1–27.4%
0–17.4%

Odds vs model — value finder

Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 9.0%), compared with our model probability.

Best value: Both teams to score — No at 2.80 (model 42.8% vs market 33.3%, edge +9.5 pts).

Market	Selection	Odds	Market %	Model %	Fair odds	Edge
Both teams to score	NoValue	2.80	33.3%	42.8%	2.34	+9.5
Match result	Home	2.10	43.7%	44.1%	2.27	+0.4
Match result	Draw	3.75	24.5%	24.7%	4.05	+0.2
Double chance	Home/Away	1.25	75.0%	75.2%	1.33	+0.2
Double chance	Home/Draw	1.36	68.9%	68.8%	1.45	-0.1
Double chance	Draw/Away	1.67	56.1%	55.8%	1.79	-0.3
Match result	Away	2.88	31.9%	31.1%	3.22	-0.8
Both teams to score	Yes	1.40	66.7%	57.2%	1.75	-9.5

Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.

Recent form

Sporting Kansas City

2026-10-25T00:30:00.000Z · H vs Austin · 1-2 (L)
2026-10-18T00:30:00.000Z · H vs Real Salt Lake · 1-3 (L)
2026-10-15T00:30:00.000Z · A vs Nashville SC · 0-4 (L)
2026-10-11T00:30:00.000Z · H vs Portland Timbers · 3-3 (D)
2026-10-02T01:30:00.000Z · A vs Seattle Sounders · 1-2 (L)

Austin

2026-10-25T00:30:00.000Z · A vs Sporting Kansas City · 2-1 (W)
2026-10-18T00:30:00.000Z · H vs Vancouver Whitecaps · 1-2 (L)
2026-10-15T02:30:00.000Z · A vs Los Angeles FC · 1-3 (L)
2026-10-11T00:30:00.000Z · H vs Nashville SC · 1-4 (L)
2026-09-27T00:30:00.000Z · H vs San Diego · 3-3 (D)

Head-to-head

2026-10-25T00:30:00.000Z · Sporting Kansas City 1-2 Austin (Major League Soccer)
2026-05-17T00:30:00.000Z · Sporting Kansas City 2-1 Austin (Major League Soccer)
2026-02-14T18:00:00.000Z · Sporting Kansas City 2-0 Austin (Friendlies Clubs)
2025-09-07T23:00:00.000Z · Sporting Kansas City 1-2 Austin (Major League Soccer)
2025-02-23T01:30:00.000Z · Sporting Kansas City 0-1 Austin (Major League Soccer)
2024-06-30T00:30:00.000Z · Sporting Kansas City 2-0 Austin (Major League Soccer)
2024-05-19T00:30:00.000Z · Sporting Kansas City 2-3 Austin (Major League Soccer)
2023-07-16T01:30:00.000Z · Sporting Kansas City 1-2 Austin (Major League Soccer)
2023-06-11T00:30:00.000Z · Sporting Kansas City 4-1 Austin (Major League Soccer)

Major League Soccer table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Vancouver Whitecaps	31	16	7	8	31	55
2	FC Dallas	31	15	9	7	11	54
3	St. Louis City	31	14	9	8	12	51
4	San Jose Earthquakes	31	13	9	9	7	48
5	Houston Dynamo	31	13	9	9	2	48
6	Los Angeles FC	32	12	11	9	15	47
7	Seattle Sounders	31	11	10	10	2	43
8	Colorado Rapids	31	12	6	13	1	42
9	Los Angeles Galaxy	32	10	11	11	-9	41
10	Real Salt Lake	31	11	6	14	0	39
11	Portland Timbers	31	10	7	14	-4	37
12	San Diego	31	8	11	12	-3	35
13	Minnesota United FC	31	8	11	12	-8	35
14	Austin	31	8	10	13	-17	34
15	Sporting Kansas City	31	6	4	21	-40	22
1	Nashville SC	31	21	7	3	43	70
2	New England Revolution	31	17	4	10	9	55
3	Inter Miami	31	15	10	6	20	55
4	Chicago Fire	31	15	6	10	9	51
5	Charlotte	31	13	8	10	7	47
6	Philadelphia Union	31	13	7	11	12	46
7	Orlando City SC	31	12	6	13	-12	42
8	FC Cincinnati	31	11	9	11	-7	42
9	New York Red Bulls	31	11	6	14	-15	39
10	Columbus Crew	31	11	5	15	1	38
11	Toronto FC	31	8	12	11	-11	36
12	New York City FC	31	8	11	12	2	35
13	DC United	31	7	12	12	-17	33
14	Atlanta United FC	31	8	6	17	-15	30
15	CF Montreal	31	6	7	18	-26	25

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 68.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 57% and over 2.5 goals at 54%.

A 69% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.