USA · Major League Soccer · Matchweek 2000:00

1 – 1

Thursday, 20 August 2026

Children's Mercy Park · Referee Victor Rivas, USA · Analysis updated 13:39 UTC

Sporting Kansas City vs St. Louis City Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.29 expected goals for Sporting Kansas City and 1.86 for St. Louis City, a combined total of 3.15. That distribution gives St. Louis City the largest share of the 1X2 market at 51%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 61% for over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 51% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

St. Louis City win

50.8% probability

Low confidencePartial model78/100

Expected goals

1.29 – 1.86

Model version

poisson-market-v1

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Sporting Kansas City home form
5 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
St. Louis City away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 8 of the last 9 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

Sporting Kansas City win27%

Draw23%

St. Louis City win51%

Double chance 1X

49%

Double chance 12

77%

Double chance X2

74%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals82%

Over 2.5 goals61%

Over 3.5 goals39%

Both teams to score61%

Correct score

1–110.3%
1–29.6%
0–18.0%
0–27.4%
2–16.6%

Odds vs model — value finder

Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 7.3%), compared with our model probability.

No selection clears our 3-point edge threshold — the market looks efficiently priced.

Market	Selection	Odds	Market %	Model %	Fair odds	Edge
Goals	Under 3.5	1.57	59.9%	61.4%	1.63	+1.5
Match result	Home	3.70	25.2%	26.6%	3.76	+1.4
Double chance	Home/Draw	1.91	48.5%	49.3%	2.03	+0.8
Both teams to score	No	2.40	38.5%	38.8%	2.58	+0.3
Match result	Away	1.84	50.6%	50.8%	1.97	+0.2
Goals	Over 2.5	1.55	60.8%	60.9%	1.64	+0.1
Double chance	Home/Away	1.20	77.3%	77.4%	1.29	+0.1
Goals	Under 2.5	2.40	39.2%	39.1%	2.56	-0.1
Both teams to score	Yes	1.50	61.5%	61.2%	1.63	-0.3
Double chance	Draw/Away	1.25	74.2%	73.5%	1.36	-0.7
Match result	Draw	3.85	24.2%	22.7%	4.41	-1.5
Goals	Over 3.5	2.35	40.1%	38.6%	2.59	-1.5

Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.

Recent form

Sporting Kansas City

2026-10-11T00:30:00.000Z · H vs Portland Timbers · 3-3 (D)
2026-10-02T01:30:00.000Z · A vs Seattle Sounders · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-27T00:30:00.000Z · A vs Houston Dynamo · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-20T00:30:00.000Z · H vs Philadelphia Union · 3-4 (L)
2026-09-13T00:30:00.000Z · H vs Los Angeles FC · 3-1 (W)

St. Louis City

2026-10-11T23:00:00.000Z · H vs Los Angeles Galaxy · 6-2 (W)
2026-09-30T23:30:00.000Z · A vs New York Red Bulls · 3-0 (W)
2026-09-20T00:30:00.000Z · H vs Toronto FC · 3-1 (W)
2026-09-17T01:30:00.000Z · A vs Colorado Rapids · 3-0 (W)
2026-09-13T00:30:00.000Z · H vs Minnesota United FC · 4-2 (W)

Head-to-head

2026-08-20T00:00:00.000Z · Sporting Kansas City 1-1 St. Louis City (Major League Soccer)
2026-07-17T00:30:00.000Z · Sporting Kansas City 2-3 St. Louis City (Major League Soccer)
2025-05-15T00:45:00.000Z · Sporting Kansas City 2-2 St. Louis City (Major League Soccer)
2025-04-06T00:30:00.000Z · Sporting Kansas City 2-0 St. Louis City (Major League Soccer)
2024-09-29T00:30:00.000Z · Sporting Kansas City 1-3 St. Louis City (Major League Soccer)
2024-07-21T00:30:00.000Z · Sporting Kansas City 1-1 St. Louis City (Major League Soccer)
2024-04-21T00:30:00.000Z · Sporting Kansas City 3-3 St. Louis City (Major League Soccer)
2023-11-05T22:00:00.000Z · Sporting Kansas City 2-1 St. Louis City (Major League Soccer)
2023-10-30T02:00:00.000Z · Sporting Kansas City 4-1 St. Louis City (Major League Soccer)

Major League Soccer table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Vancouver Whitecaps	29	15	7	7	31	52
2	St. Louis City	29	14	9	6	16	51
3	FC Dallas	29	14	8	7	8	50
4	San Jose Earthquakes	29	13	8	8	10	47
5	Houston Dynamo	29	13	7	9	2	46
6	Los Angeles FC	30	12	9	9	15	45
7	Seattle Sounders	29	11	8	10	2	41
8	Los Angeles Galaxy	30	10	9	11	-9	39
9	Colorado Rapids	29	11	5	13	0	38
10	Portland Timbers	29	9	6	14	-5	33
11	Real Salt Lake	29	9	6	14	-5	33
12	San Diego	29	8	9	12	-3	33
13	Minnesota United FC	29	7	10	12	-9	31
14	Austin	29	7	10	12	-17	31
15	Sporting Kansas City	29	6	4	19	-37	22
1	Nashville SC	29	20	6	3	41	66
2	Inter Miami	29	14	10	5	20	52
3	New England Revolution	29	15	4	10	7	49
4	Chicago Fire	29	14	6	9	9	48
5	Charlotte	29	13	7	9	8	46
6	Philadelphia Union	29	13	6	10	13	45
7	Orlando City SC	29	11	5	13	-15	38
8	New York Red Bulls	29	10	6	13	-15	36
9	FC Cincinnati	28	9	9	10	-8	36
10	New York City FC	29	8	9	12	2	33
11	Toronto FC	29	7	12	10	-11	33
12	DC United	28	7	12	9	-11	33
13	Columbus Crew	29	9	5	15	-3	32
14	Atlanta United FC	29	8	6	15	-12	30
15	CF Montreal	29	6	6	17	-24	24

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is St. Louis City win, at 50.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 61% and over 2.5 goals at 61%.

A 51% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.