Children's Mercy Park · Referee M. De Oliveira · Analysis updated 14:02 UTC
Sporting Kansas City vs Vancouver Whitecaps Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.99 expected goals for Sporting Kansas City and 2.41 for Vancouver Whitecaps, a combined total of 3.40. That distribution gives Vancouver Whitecaps the largest share of the 1X2 market at 69%, with the draw at 18%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 66% for over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score, with 0–2 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 69% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Vancouver Whitecaps win
68.7% probability
Expected goals
0.99 – 2.41
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Sporting Kansas City home form
5 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Vancouver Whitecaps away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Vancouver Whitecaps to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 69%, against 14% / 18% / 69% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.99 goals for Sporting Kansas City and 2.41 for Vancouver Whitecaps, a combined 3.40 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
31%
Double chance 12
83%
Double chance X2
86%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–29.7%
- 1–29.6%
- 0–18.0%
- 1–18.0%
- 0–37.8%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 6.9%), compared with our model probability.
No selection clears our 3-point edge threshold — the market looks efficiently priced.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.10 | 84.4% | 86.2% | 1.16 | +1.8 |
| Goals | Under 3.5 | 1.70 | 55.3% | 55.9% | 1.79 | +0.6 |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | 2.80 | 33.6% | 34.1% | 2.93 | +0.5 |
| Match result | Home | 7.00 | 13.4% | 13.8% | 7.25 | +0.4 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.62 | 57.0% | 57.1% | 1.75 | +0.1 |
| Match result | Away | 1.36 | 68.8% | 68.7% | 1.46 | -0.1 |
| Both teams to score | No | 2.15 | 43.0% | 42.9% | 2.33 | -0.1 |
| Match result | Draw | 5.25 | 17.8% | 17.5% | 5.71 | -0.3 |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | 1.42 | 66.4% | 65.9% | 1.52 | -0.5 |
| Goals | Over 3.5 | 2.10 | 44.7% | 44.1% | 2.27 | -0.6 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 2.90 | 32.0% | 31.3% | 3.19 | -0.7 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.11 | 83.6% | 82.5% | 1.21 | -1.1 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Sporting Kansas City
- 2026-10-11T00:30:00.000Z · H vs Portland Timbers · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-10-02T01:30:00.000Z · A vs Seattle Sounders · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-27T00:30:00.000Z · A vs Houston Dynamo · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T00:30:00.000Z · H vs Philadelphia Union · 3-4 (L)
- 2026-09-13T00:30:00.000Z · H vs Los Angeles FC · 3-1 (W)
Vancouver Whitecaps
- 2026-10-11T02:30:00.000Z · A vs Los Angeles FC · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-07T00:30:00.000Z · A vs Chicago Fire · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-27T02:30:00.000Z · H vs DC United · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-09-20T01:30:00.000Z · A vs Real Salt Lake · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-16T23:00:00.000Z · A vs CF Montreal · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Major League Soccer table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vancouver Whitecaps | 28 | 15 | 6 | 7 | 31 | 51 |
| 2 | St. Louis City | 28 | 14 | 8 | 6 | 16 | 50 |
| 3 | FC Dallas | 28 | 13 | 8 | 7 | 7 | 47 |
| 4 | San Jose Earthquakes | 28 | 13 | 7 | 8 | 10 | 46 |
| 5 | Houston Dynamo | 28 | 13 | 6 | 9 | 2 | 45 |
| 6 | Los Angeles FC | 29 | 11 | 9 | 9 | 13 | 42 |
| 7 | Seattle Sounders | 28 | 11 | 8 | 9 | 3 | 41 |
| 8 | Colorado Rapids | 28 | 11 | 4 | 13 | 0 | 37 |
| 9 | Los Angeles Galaxy | 29 | 9 | 9 | 11 | -11 | 36 |
| 10 | Portland Timbers | 28 | 9 | 6 | 13 | -3 | 33 |
| 11 | Real Salt Lake | 28 | 9 | 5 | 14 | -5 | 32 |
| 12 | San Diego | 28 | 8 | 8 | 12 | -3 | 32 |
| 13 | Austin | 28 | 7 | 10 | 11 | -15 | 31 |
| 14 | Minnesota United FC | 28 | 7 | 9 | 12 | -9 | 30 |
| 15 | Sporting Kansas City | 28 | 6 | 4 | 18 | -33 | 22 |
| 1 | Nashville SC | 28 | 19 | 6 | 3 | 37 | 63 |
| 2 | Inter Miami | 28 | 13 | 10 | 5 | 18 | 49 |
| 3 | Chicago Fire | 28 | 14 | 6 | 8 | 11 | 48 |
| 4 | New England Revolution | 28 | 14 | 4 | 10 | 6 | 46 |
| 5 | Charlotte | 28 | 13 | 7 | 8 | 10 | 46 |
| 6 | Philadelphia Union | 28 | 12 | 6 | 10 | 11 | 42 |
| 7 | Orlando City SC | 28 | 11 | 4 | 13 | -15 | 37 |
| 8 | New York Red Bulls | 28 | 10 | 6 | 12 | -14 | 36 |
| 9 | FC Cincinnati | 27 | 9 | 9 | 9 | -7 | 36 |
| 10 | New York City FC | 28 | 8 | 9 | 11 | 4 | 33 |
| 11 | Toronto FC | 28 | 7 | 11 | 10 | -11 | 32 |
| 12 | DC United | 27 | 6 | 12 | 9 | -12 | 30 |
| 13 | Columbus Crew | 28 | 8 | 5 | 15 | -5 | 29 |
| 14 | Atlanta United FC | 28 | 7 | 6 | 15 | -15 | 27 |
| 15 | CF Montreal | 28 | 6 | 6 | 16 | -21 | 24 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Vancouver Whitecaps win, at 68.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 57% and over 2.5 goals at 66%.
A 69% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.