Swope Soccer Village · Analysis updated 18:56 UTC
Sporting KC II vs Minnesota United II Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.29 expected goals for Sporting KC II and 2.17 for Minnesota United II, a combined total of 3.46. That distribution gives Minnesota United II the largest share of the 1X2 market at 57%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 67% for over 2.5 goals and 64% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 57% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Minnesota United II win
57.3% probability
Expected goals
1.29 – 2.17
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Sporting KC II home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Minnesota United II away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Minnesota United II to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 57%, against 22% / 20% / 57% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.29 goals for Sporting KC II and 2.17 for Minnesota United II, a combined 3.46 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
43%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
78%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–29.5%
- 1–18.8%
- 0–27.4%
- 1–36.9%
- 0–16.8%
Recent form
Sporting KC II
- 2026-09-20T21:00:00.000Z · A vs Houston Dynamo FC II · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-14T00:00:00.000Z · H vs Los Angeles FC II · 1-5 (L)
- 2026-09-06T00:00:00.000Z · H vs St. Louis City II · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-30T23:00:00.000Z · A vs Vancouver Whitecaps II · 1-5 (L)
- 2026-08-25T02:00:00.000Z · A vs Tacoma Defiance · 0-4 (L)
Minnesota United II
- 2026-10-17T02:00:00.000Z · A vs Ventura County · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-20T21:00:00.000Z · H vs Los Angeles FC II · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-17T01:00:00.000Z · A vs Real Monarchs · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-13T00:00:00.000Z · H vs Vancouver Whitecaps II · 5-1 (W)
- 2026-09-06T00:00:00.000Z · H vs Colorado Rapids II · 2-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
MLS Next Pro table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Minnesota United II win, at 57.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 64% and over 2.5 goals at 67%.
A 57% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.