· Analysis updated 05:59 UTC
Sporting Lieşti vs FC Bacau Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.30 expected goals for Sporting Lieşti and 2.90 for FC Bacau, a combined total of 4.20. That distribution gives FC Bacau the largest share of the 1X2 market at 70%, with the draw at 15%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 79% for over 2.5 goals and 69% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 70% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
FC Bacau win
70.2% probability
Expected goals
1.30 – 2.90
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Sporting Lieşti home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
FC Bacau away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates FC Bacau to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 70%, against 15% / 15% / 70% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.30 goals for Sporting Lieşti and 2.90 for FC Bacau, a combined 4.20 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
30%
Double chance 12
85%
Double chance X2
86%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–28.2%
- 1–37.9%
- 0–26.3%
- 0–36.1%
- 1–45.7%
Recent form
Sporting Lieşti
- 2026-10-10T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Progresul Fundulea · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-03T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Agricola Borcea · 3-5 (L)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Oţelul II · 6-1 (W)
- 2026-09-23T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Dunarea Calarasi · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Înainte Modelu · 5-4 (W)
FC Bacau
- 2026-09-19T08:00:00.000Z · H vs Cetatea Suceava · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-15T14:00:00.000Z · A vs CSM Reşiţa · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-06T08:00:00.000Z · H vs Dumbrăviţa · 6-1 (W)
- 2026-09-03T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Universitatea Craiova · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-31T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Slatina · 0-0 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is FC Bacau win, at 70.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 69% and over 2.5 goals at 79%.
A 70% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.