· Analysis updated 23:28 UTC
Sporting Lieşti vs Portul Constanta Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 4.50 expected goals for Sporting Lieşti and 1.31 for Portul Constanta, a combined total of 5.81. That distribution gives Sporting Lieşti the largest share of the 1X2 market at 87%, with the draw at 8%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 89% for over 2.5 goals and 69% for both teams to score, with 4–1 the single most likely scoreline at 7%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 87% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Sporting Lieşti win
87.0% probability
Expected goals
4.50 – 1.31
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Sporting Lieşti home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Sporting Lieşti to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 87%, against 87% / 8% / 6% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 4.50 goals for Sporting Lieşti and 1.31 for Portul Constanta, a combined 5.81 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 89% and both teams to score at 69%, with 4–1 the single most likely scoreline at 7%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
95%
Double chance 12
93%
Double chance X2
13%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 4–16.7%
- 5–16.0%
- 3–16.0%
- 4–05.1%
- 5–04.6%
Recent form
Sporting Lieşti
- 2026-10-10T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Progresul Fundulea · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-03T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Agricola Borcea · 3-5 (L)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Oţelul II · 6-1 (W)
- 2026-09-23T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Dunarea Calarasi · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Înainte Modelu · 5-4 (W)
Portul Constanta
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Liga III - Serie 4 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Agricola Borcea | 10 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 23 | 27 |
| 2 | Progresul Fundulea | 10 | 7 | 0 | 3 | 14 | 21 |
| 3 | Sporting Lieşti | 10 | 6 | 0 | 4 | 16 | 18 |
| 4 | Unirea Braniştea | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 16 |
| 5 | Înainte Modelu | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 16 |
| 6 | Axiopolis | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 16 |
| 7 | Agigea | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | -1 | 15 |
| 8 | Recolta Gheorghe Doja | 10 | 5 | 0 | 5 | -8 | 15 |
| 9 | Dunarea Calarasi | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | -3 | 14 |
| 10 | Gloria Băneasa | 10 | 2 | 1 | 7 | -11 | 7 |
| 11 | FC Oţelul II | 10 | 2 | 1 | 7 | -15 | 7 |
| 12 | Portul Constanta | 10 | 1 | 0 | 9 | -26 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Sporting Lieşti win, at 87.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 4–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 69% and over 2.5 goals at 89%.
A 87% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.