Estadio Los Andes II · Analysis updated 16:52 UTC
Sporting San Miguelito vs UMECIT Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.96 expected goals for Sporting San Miguelito and 0.93 for UMECIT, a combined total of 1.90. That distribution gives Sporting San Miguelito the largest share of the 1X2 market at 35%, with the draw at 32%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 30% for over 2.5 goals and 38% for both teams to score, with 0–0 the single most likely scoreline at 15%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 35% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Home/Draw
66.7% probability
Expected goals
0.96 – 0.93
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Sporting San Miguelito home form
6 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
UMECIT away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Sporting San Miguelito to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 35%, against 35% / 32% / 33% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.96 goals for Sporting San Miguelito and 0.93 for UMECIT, a combined 1.90 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
67%
Double chance 12
68%
Double chance X2
65%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–015.0%
- 1–014.4%
- 0–114.0%
- 1–113.5%
- 2–07.0%
Recent form
Sporting San Miguelito
- 2026-10-20T01:00:00.000Z · H vs Tauro FC · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-06T01:00:00.000Z · H vs Union Cocle · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-27T23:15:00.000Z · A vs Veraguas · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-20T23:15:00.000Z · A vs Independiente de La Chorrera · 3-4 (L)
- 2026-09-15T01:00:00.000Z · H vs San Francisco FC · 0-2 (L)
UMECIT
- 2026-10-03T01:30:00.000Z · A vs San Francisco FC · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-26T23:15:00.000Z · A vs Deportivo Universitario · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-22T01:00:00.000Z · H vs Union Cocle · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T21:00:00.000Z · A vs Herrera · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-08T01:00:00.000Z · H vs Independiente de La Chorrera · 2-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Liga Panameña de Fútbol table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Plaza Amador | 16 | 9 | 4 | 3 | 12 | 31 |
| 2 | Alianza FC | 16 | 6 | 9 | 1 | 6 | 27 |
| 3 | UMECIT | 16 | 6 | 7 | 3 | 8 | 25 |
| 4 | Veraguas | 16 | 7 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 25 |
| 5 | Union Cocle | 16 | 5 | 8 | 3 | 5 | 23 |
| 6 | Tauro FC | 16 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 21 |
| 7 | CD Arabe Unido | 16 | 6 | 3 | 7 | -4 | 21 |
| 8 | Independiente de La Chorrera | 16 | 4 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 20 |
| 9 | San Francisco FC | 16 | 5 | 5 | 6 | -3 | 20 |
| 10 | Sporting San Miguelito | 16 | 4 | 6 | 6 | -2 | 18 |
| 11 | Deportivo Universitario | 16 | 3 | 5 | 8 | -8 | 14 |
| 12 | Herrera | 16 | 1 | 5 | 10 | -24 | 8 |
| 1 | Plaza Amador | 12 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 12 | 27 |
| 2 | San Francisco FC | 12 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 23 |
| 3 | CD Arabe Unido | 12 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 22 |
| 4 | UMECIT | 12 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 19 |
| 5 | Veraguas | 12 | 4 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 18 |
| 6 | Tauro FC | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 14 |
| 7 | Independiente de La Chorrera | 12 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 14 |
| 8 | Alianza FC | 12 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 14 |
| 9 | Sporting San Miguelito | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | -1 | 13 |
| 10 | Deportivo Universitario | 12 | 2 | 5 | 5 | -3 | 11 |
| 11 | Herrera | 12 | 3 | 2 | 7 | -14 | 11 |
| 12 | Union Cocle | 12 | 1 | 2 | 9 | -14 | 5 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 66.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 38% and over 2.5 goals at 30%.
A 67% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.